Fénix vs Atlas prediction, Tuesday 6 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Argentina - Primera C
Fénix v AtlasHomevAwayHomevAway
Final score Fénix 1, Atlas 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Fénix win 33%, Draw 39%, Atlas win 28%.
Fénix host Atlas in the Primera C, Argentina.
Our model gives Fénix a 33% chance of winning, a draw 39% and Atlas 28%.
The model expects Fénix to score 0.8 goals and Atlas 0.7.
Fénix have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Atlas have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Fénix sit 24th with 31 points; Atlas sit 18th with 37 points.
- Fénix have taken 4 points from their last 5 matches; Atlas 2 from 5.
- At home, Fénix have taken 4 points from their last 3; away, Atlas have taken 3 from their last 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model)Fénix 0.8, Atlas 0.7 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera C, before kick-off.
Fénix sit 24th with 31 points; Atlas sit 18th with 37. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Atlas.
The league's last stored table, updated before kick-off (matched by team name).
- 17th Puerto Nuevo38 points from 31 games · goal difference -7
- 18th Atlas37 points from 30 games · goal difference -3
- 19th Defensores de Cambaceres37 points from 31 games · goal difference -5
- 23rd Claypole32 points from 30 games · goal difference -14
- 24th Fénix31 points from 30 games · goal difference -8
- 25th Deportivo Paraguayo31 points from 30 games · goal difference -16
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 17 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 18 | Atlas | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 37 |
| 19 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 37 |
| 23 | Claypole | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 32 |
| 24 | Fénix | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 31 |
| 25 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 38 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Luján58 points from 30 games · goal difference +22
- 2nd Cañuelas57 points from 30 games · goal difference +17
- 3rd Central Córdoba de Rosario49 points from 31 games · goal difference +10
- 4th Deportivo Español48 points from 30 games · goal difference +9
- 5th Sacachispas47 points from 31 games · goal difference +6
- 6th Berazategui46 points from 31 games · goal difference +12
- 7th CA Lugano46 points from 31 games · goal difference +7
- 8th Juventud Unida G.45 points from 31 games · goal difference +7
- 9th Leones de Rosario45 points from 30 games · goal difference +3
- 10th Estrella del Sur45 points from 31 games · goal difference +2
- 11th Centro Español
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Cañuelas27 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Away1–2
WWonv Deportivo Muñiz21 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Home1–0
DDrewv Centro Español14 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Home1–1
LLostat Deportivo Español6 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Away0–1
LLostv Central Córdoba de Rosario31 Aug 2026 · Primera C · Home0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewat Claypole24 Aug 2026 · Primera C · Away0–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Sportivo Barracas27 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Home1–1
LLostat Luján19 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Away0–1
LLostat Berazategui12 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Away0–2
DDrewv General Lamadrid6 Sept 2026 · Primera C · Home0–0
LLostat Leones de Rosario31 Aug 2026 · Primera C · Away0–1
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonat Yupanqui22 Aug 2026 · Primera C · Away2–0
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Fénix at home and Atlas away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Fénix
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 0.80 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
- Home, last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 2 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Fénix| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Atlas
- Last 5 (5)0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 1 scored, 5 conceded · 0.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 4
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 3 scored, 5 conceded · 0.83 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 4
- Away, last 5 (4)1 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 0.75 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Away, last 10 (4)1 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 4 conceded · 0.75 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
Atlas| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
|---|
Fénix at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Atlas away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Fénix | Atlas |
|---|
| League position | 24th | 18th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.03 | 1.23 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 0.83 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
- Fénix have the better recent form: 4 points from 5 against 2 from 5.
44 points from 30 games · goal difference +10
12th Victoriano Arenas44 points from 31 games · goal difference +513th Mercedes43 points from 30 games · goal difference +614th General Lamadrid40 points from 30 games · goal difference -315th Sportivo Barracas39 points from 30 games · goal difference +216th Central Ballester38 points from 30 games · goal difference 017th Puerto Nuevo38 points from 31 games · goal difference -718th Atlas37 points from 30 games · goal difference -319th Defensores de Cambaceres37 points from 31 games · goal difference -520th El Porvenir36 points from 30 games · goal difference -521st Yupanqui35 points from 31 games · goal difference -222nd JJ Urquiza32 points from 31 games · goal difference -723rd Claypole32 points from 30 games · goal difference -1424th Fénix31 points from 30 games · goal difference -825th Deportivo Paraguayo31 points from 30 games · goal difference -1626th Leandro Nicéforo Alem31 points from 30 games · goal difference -2227th Argentino Rosario27 points from 31 games · goal difference -1128th Deportivo Muñiz26 points from 30 games · goal difference -15| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Luján | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 44 | 22 | +22 | 58 |
| 2 | Cañuelas | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 57 |
| 3 | Central Córdoba de Rosario | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 32 | 22 | +10 | 49 |
| 4 | Deportivo Español | 30 | 11 | 15 | 4 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 48 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 | Berazategui | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Lugano | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 46 |
| 8 | Juventud Unida G. | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 31 | +7 | 45 |
| 9 | Leones de Rosario | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 45 |
| 10 | Estrella del Sur | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 45 |
| 11 | Centro Español | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 27 | +10 | 44 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 44 |
| 13 | Mercedes | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 14 | General Lamadrid | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 40 |
| 15 | Sportivo Barracas | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 39 |
| 16 | Central Ballester | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 38 |
| 17 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 18 | Atlas | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 37 |
| 19 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 37 |
| 20 | El Porvenir | 30 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 36 |
| 21 | Yupanqui | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 35 |
| 22 | JJ Urquiza | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 32 |
| 23 | Claypole | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 32 |
| 24 | Fénix | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 31 |
| 25 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 31 |
| 26 | Leandro Nicéforo Alem | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 31 |
| 27 | Argentino Rosario | 31 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 27 |
| 28 | Deportivo Muñiz | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 26 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 3 |
|---|