Guatemala vs Suriname prediction, Tuesday 6 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· North & Central America - CONCACAF Nations League
Guatemala v SurinameHomevAwayHomevAway
Final score Guatemala 1, Suriname 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Guatemala win 50%, Draw 23%, Suriname win 27%.
Guatemala host Suriname in the CONCACAF Nations League, North & Central America.
Our model gives Guatemala a 50% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Suriname 27%.
The model expects Guatemala to score 1.9 goals and Suriname 1.4.
Guatemala have won 1 of their last 3 league matches; Suriname have won 2 of 3.
Top factors
- Guatemala sit 18th with 4 points; Suriname sit 11th with 7 points.
- Guatemala have taken 4 points from their last 3 matches; Suriname 7 from 3.
- At home, Guatemala have taken 3 points from their last 1; away, Suriname have taken 3 from their last 1.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model)Guatemala 1.9, Suriname 1.4 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the CONCACAF Nations League, before kick-off.
Guatemala sit 18th with 4 points; Suriname sit 11th with 7. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Guatemala.
The league's last stored table, updated before kick-off (matched by team name).
- 10th Puerto Rico7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
- 11th Suriname7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 12th Antigua and Barbuda6 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
- 17th Dominican Republic6 points from 3 games · goal difference -1
- 18th Guatemala4 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 19th Guadeloupe4 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 10 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 11 | Suriname | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Antigua and Barbuda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
| 17 | Dominican Republic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 18 | Guatemala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Guyana12 points from 4 games · goal difference +14
- 2nd Montserrat9 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
- 3rd Curacao9 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
- 4th Haiti9 points from 3 games · goal difference +6
- 5th St. Vincent and the Grenadines9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Aruba9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 7th Barbados7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 8th Cuba7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 9th St. Kitts and Nevis7 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 10th Puerto Rico7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
- 11th Suriname7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewat Suriname2 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away0–0
WWonv El Salvador29 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home6–0
LLostat Jamaica26 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away2–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
DDrewv Guatemala2 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home0–0
WWonv Martinique28 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home2–1
WWonat Honduras26 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away3–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Guatemala at home and Suriname away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Guatemala
- Last 5 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 3 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (3)1 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost · 8 scored, 3 conceded · 1.33 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Home, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 6 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Guatemala| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 | 1.33 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 | 1.33 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Suriname
- Last 5 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (3)2 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.33 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 2 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 2 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Suriname| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 |
|---|
Guatemala at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Suriname away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Guatemala | Suriname |
|---|
| League position | 18th | 11th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.33 | 2.33 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 3 and 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 3 and 3) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Curacao | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aruba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Barbados | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Cuba | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 11 | Suriname | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Antigua and Barbuda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
| 13 | St. Lucia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 14 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 15 | Jamaica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | French Guiana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 17 | Dominican Republic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 18 | Guatemala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Saint Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 21 | Costa Rica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | Honduras | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 | Martinique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 25 | Belize | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 26 | Grenada | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 27 | El Salvador | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 28 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 29 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
| 30 | Bonaire | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Sint Maarten | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 |
| 33 | Bahamas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|