Honduras vs Jamaica prediction, Tuesday 6 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· North & Central America - CONCACAF Nations League
Honduras v JamaicaHomevAwayHomevAway
Final score Honduras 1, Jamaica 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Honduras win 36%, Draw 25%, Jamaica win 39%.
Honduras host Jamaica in the CONCACAF Nations League, North & Central America.
Our model gives Honduras a 36% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Jamaica 39%.
The model expects Honduras to score 1.5 goals and Jamaica 1.5.
Honduras have won 1 of their last 3 league matches; Jamaica have won 2 of 3.
Top factors
- Honduras sit 22nd with 3 points; Jamaica sit 15th with 6 points.
- Honduras have taken 3 points from their last 3 matches; Jamaica 6 from 3.
- At home, Honduras have taken 0 points from their last 1; away, Jamaica have taken 3 from their last 1.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model)Honduras 1.5, Jamaica 1.5 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the CONCACAF Nations League, before kick-off.
Honduras sit 22nd with 3 points; Jamaica sit 15th with 6. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Jamaica.
The league's last stored table, updated before kick-off (matched by team name).
- 14th Turks and Caicos Islands6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 15th Jamaica6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 16th French Guiana6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
- 21st Costa Rica3 points from 3 games · goal difference 0
- 22nd Honduras3 points from 3 games · goal difference -1
- 23rd Martinique3 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 14 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 15 | Jamaica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | French Guiana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 21 | Costa Rica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | Honduras | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 | Martinique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Guyana12 points from 4 games · goal difference +14
- 2nd Montserrat9 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
- 3rd Curacao9 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
- 4th Haiti9 points from 3 games · goal difference +6
- 5th St. Vincent and the Grenadines9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Aruba9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 7th Barbados7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 8th Cuba7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 9th St. Kitts and Nevis7 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 10th Puerto Rico7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
- 11th Suriname7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Martinique3 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away1–2
WWonat Jamaica29 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away1–0
LLostv Suriname26 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home2–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat El Salvador3 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away2–0
LLostv Honduras29 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home0–1
WWonv Guatemala26 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home3–2
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Honduras at home and Jamaica away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Honduras
- Last 5 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (3)1 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost · 4 scored, 5 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 3 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 2 scored, 3 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Honduras| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Jamaica
- Last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 3 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Jamaica| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 |
|---|
Honduras at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Jamaica away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Honduras | Jamaica |
|---|
| League position | 22nd | 15th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 3 and 3) | 1.33 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 3 and 3) | 1.67 | 1.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Curacao | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aruba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Barbados | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Cuba | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 11 | Suriname | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Antigua and Barbuda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
| 13 | St. Lucia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 14 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 15 | Jamaica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | French Guiana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 17 | Dominican Republic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 18 | Guatemala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Saint Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 21 | Costa Rica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | Honduras | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 | Martinique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 25 | Belize | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 26 | Grenada | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 27 | El Salvador | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 28 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 29 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
| 30 | Bonaire | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Sint Maarten | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 |
| 33 | Bahamas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| Last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|