· North & Central America - CONCACAF Nations League
Montserrat v Turks and Caicos IslandsMontserratHomevTurks and Caicos IslandsAwayMontserratHomevTurks and Caicos IslandsAway
Final score Montserrat 4, Turks and Caicos Islands 1.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance when published
Our model · No price
Each of Montserrat's last 3 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Montserrat win 45%, Draw 26%, Turks and Caicos Islands win 29%.
45%
Montserrat win
26%
Draw
29%
Turks and Caicos Islands win
Why this pick
Montserrat host Turks and Caicos Islands in the CONCACAF Nations League, North & Central America.
Our model gives a 78% chance of 2 or more goals in the match.
The model expects Montserrat to score 1.6 goals and Turks and Caicos Islands 1.3.
3 of Montserrat's last 3 league matches had two or more goals; 3 of Turks and Caicos Islands's last 3 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Tue 6 Oct, 07:42 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Montserrat win
45%
Draw
26%
Turks and Caicos Islands win
29%
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals (our model)
Montserrat 1.6, Turks and Caicos Islands 1.3
Key factors
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Montserrat sit 2nd with 9 points; Turks and Caicos Islands sit 14th with 6 points.
Montserrat have taken 9 points from their last 3 matches; Turks and Caicos Islands 6 from 3.
At home, Montserrat have taken 3 points from their last 1; away, Turks and Caicos Islands have taken 3 from their last 1.
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the CONCACAF Nations League, before kick-off.
Montserrat sit 2nd with 9 points; Turks and Caicos Islands sit 14th with 6. A gap of 3 in goal difference, in favour of Montserrat.
The league's last stored table, updated before kick-off (matched by team name).
1stGuyana12 points from 4 games · goal difference +14
2ndMontserrat9 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
3rdCuracao9 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
13thSt. Lucia6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
14thTurks and Caicos Islands6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
15thJamaica6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
1
Guyana
4
4
0
0
16
2
+14
12
2
Montserrat
3
3
0
0
7
0
+7
9
3
Curacao
4
3
0
1
11
5
+6
9
13
St. Lucia
3
2
0
1
8
4
+4
6
14
Turks and Caicos Islands
3
2
0
1
6
2
+4
6
15
Jamaica
3
2
0
1
5
3
+2
Show full tableShow less
1stGuyana12 points from 4 games · goal difference +14
2ndMontserrat9 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
3rdCuracao9 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
4thHaiti9 points from 3 games · goal difference +6
5thSt. Vincent and the Grenadines9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
6thAruba9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
7thBarbados7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
8thCuba7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
9thSt. Kitts and Nevis7 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
10thPuerto Rico7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
11thSuriname7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
Montserrat: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat British Virgin Islands1 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away2–0
WWonv British Virgin Islands26 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home3–0
WWonat Turks and Caicos Islands23 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away2–0
Turks and Caicos Islands: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonv British Virgin Islands4 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home3–0
WWonat British Virgin Islands29 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away3–0
LLostv Montserrat23 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home0–2
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Montserrat at home and Turks and Caicos Islands away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Montserrat
Last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Home, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Montserrat
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (3)
3
3
0
0
7
0
+7
9
3.00
3
0
Last 10 (3)
3
3
0
0
7
0
+7
9
3.00
3
0
Home, last 5 (1)
1
1
0
0
3
0
+3
3
3.00
1
0
Home, last 10 (1)
1
1
0
0
3
0
+3
3
3.00
1
0
Turks and Caicos Islands
Last 5 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 2 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (3)2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 2 conceded · 2.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Away, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 3 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Turks and Caicos Islands
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (3)
3
2
Montserrat at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Turks and Caicos Islands away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
Montserrat
Turks and Caicos Islands
League position
2nd
14th
Points per game
3.00
2.00
Attack: goals per game (last 3 and 3)
2.33
2.00
Defence: conceded per game (last 3 and 3)
0.00
0.67
Clean sheets
3
2
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
6
12thAntigua and Barbuda6 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
13thSt. Lucia6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
14thTurks and Caicos Islands6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
15thJamaica6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
16thFrench Guiana6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
17thDominican Republic6 points from 3 games · goal difference -1
18thGuatemala4 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
19thGuadeloupe4 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
20thSaint Martin3 points from 1 game · goal difference +8
21stCosta Rica3 points from 3 games · goal difference 0
22ndHonduras3 points from 3 games · goal difference -1
23rdMartinique3 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
24thTrinidad and Tobago3 points from 4 games · goal difference -2
25thBelize3 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
26thGrenada3 points from 3 games · goal difference -5
27thEl Salvador3 points from 3 games · goal difference -6
28thCayman Islands2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
29thDominica1 points from 4 games · goal difference -13
30thBonaire0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4
31stSint Maarten0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4
32ndBermuda0 points from 3 games · goal difference -7
33rdBahamas0 points from 1 game · goal difference -8
34thNicaragua0 points from 3 games · goal difference -9
35thAnguilla0 points from 4 games · goal difference -11
36thBritish Virgin Islands0 points from 4 games · goal difference -11