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Yesterday's picks

Thursday 15 October

17 of 20 top picks won

Other picks: 2 of 2 won

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.15

HNK Hajduk SplitAjax21

37' Sanyang, 53' Klaassen, 55' Soticek

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.20

CSKA SofiaMonaco12

3' Brunner, 43' Fati, 76' Zwarts

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

Lech PoznanBayer Leverkusen04

29' Schick (pen), 32' Tillman, 41' Schick (pen), 88' Maza

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.14

Short price: returns 14p for every £1 if it wins

PanathinaikosBorac Banja Luka21

10' Dessers (pen), 70' Kangwa, 80' Jojic

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price then 1.20

FC LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda32

25' Ajeti, 32' Elsnik, 67' Krunic, 84' Moncada, 89' Grgic (pen)

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price then 1.19

Mjallby AIFInter Club d'Escaldes20

54' Bergstrom, 65' Noren

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 76% · Price then 1.22

Egnatia RrogozhinëFC Midtjylland11

26' Gruda, 33' Gue-Sung

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.19

LyonCrystal Palace32

8' Tolisso, 45+2' Nuamah, 50' Pino, 76' Šulc, 81' Kamada

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 71% · Price then 1.31

RigaKairat Almaty11

5' Gual (pen), 12' M'Hand

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

BenficaCeltic41

5' Durán (pen), 23' Bah, 36' Durán, 63' Duran, 89' Pavlidis

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price then 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

TwenteFC Thun10

65' Zerrouki

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

BrannLincoln Red Imps FC21

59' Gomez, 64' Castro, 81' Castro

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.15

Heart Of MidlothianFC Nordsjaelland11

33' McEntee, 86' Rojkjaer

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.14

Short price: returns 14p for every £1 if it wins

SC FreiburgFK Jablonec32

15' Grifo, 28' Rusek, 53' Pavlovic (og), 65' Eggestein, 90+3' Kuol

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 77% · Price then 1.21

MarseilleOlympiakos Piraeus01

42' Hezze

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.16

St. TruidenFC Iberia 199920

11' Vanwesemael, 88' Sebaoui

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 70% · Price then 1.35

Celta VigoJuventus12

18' Antunez, 58' Woltemade, 90+2' Muani

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 70% · Price then 1.33

FC CopenhagenSC Braga30

49' Elyounoussi, 79' Cornelius, 86' Cornelius

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 76% · Price then 1.23

Dinamo ZagrebAnderlecht10

90+6' Beljo (pen)

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.18

JagielloniaArarat-Armenia31

11' Banjaqui, 13' Jóźwiak, 38' Conceição, 51' Sow

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Other picks (2)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.19

Union St. GilloiseReal Sociedad11

46' Turrientes, 88' Keita

· UEFA Europa League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.15

AtalantaPafos31

1' Elmas, 18' Raspadori (pen), 44' Scamacca, 88' Biel

· UEFA Europa Conference League

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Esiliiga B, Estonia

Narva U21 v Tartu Kalev

Final score Narva U21 2, Tartu Kalev 0.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Narva U21 win 66%, Draw 17%, Tartu Kalev win 17%.

What the data says

Narva U21 host Tartu Kalev in the Esiliiga B, Estonia.

Our model gives Narva U21 a 66% chance of winning, a draw 17% and Tartu Kalev 17%.

The model expects Narva U21 to score 2.6 goals and Tartu Kalev 1.1.

Narva U21 have won 6 of their last 6 league matches; Tartu Kalev have won 2 of 6.

Top factors

  • Narva U21 sit 1st with 66 points; Tartu Kalev sit 7th with 47 points.
  • Narva U21 have taken 15 points from their last 5 matches; Tartu Kalev 6 from 5.
  • At home, Narva U21 have taken 6 points from their last 2; away, Tartu Kalev have taken 6 from their last 3.

Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.