Saint Martin vs Bahamas prediction, Tuesday 6 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· North & Central America - CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Martin v BahamasHomevAwayHomevAway
Final score Saint Martin 6, Bahamas 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Saint Martin win 64%, Draw 19%, Bahamas win 17%.
Saint Martin host Bahamas in the CONCACAF Nations League, North & Central America.
Our model gives Saint Martin a 64% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Bahamas 17%.
The model expects Saint Martin to score 2.5 goals and Bahamas 1.4.
Top factors
- Saint Martin sit 20th with 3 points; Bahamas sit 33rd with 0 points.
- Saint Martin have taken 3 points from their last 1 matches; Bahamas 0 from 1.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model)Saint Martin 2.5, Bahamas 1.4 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the CONCACAF Nations League, before kick-off.
Saint Martin sit 20th with 3 points; Bahamas sit 33rd with 0. A gap of 16 in goal difference, in favour of Saint Martin.
The league's last stored table, updated before kick-off (matched by team name).
- 19th Guadeloupe4 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
- 20th Saint Martin3 points from 1 game · goal difference +8
- 21st Costa Rica3 points from 3 games · goal difference 0
- 32nd Bermuda0 points from 3 games · goal difference -7
- 33rd Bahamas0 points from 1 game · goal difference -8
- 34th Nicaragua0 points from 3 games · goal difference -9
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 19 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Saint Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 21 | Costa Rica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 |
| 33 | Bahamas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Guyana12 points from 4 games · goal difference +14
- 2nd Montserrat9 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
- 3rd Curacao9 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
- 4th Haiti9 points from 3 games · goal difference +6
- 5th St. Vincent and the Grenadines9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 6th Aruba9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 7th Barbados7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 8th Cuba7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
- 9th St. Kitts and Nevis7 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 10th Puerto Rico7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
- 11th Suriname7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Bahamas23 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away8–0
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Saint Martin23 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home0–8
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Saint Martin at home and Bahamas away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Saint Martin
- Last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 0 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5: none
- Home, last 10: none
Saint Martin| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (1) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|
| Home, last 10: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|
Bahamas
- Last 5 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 8 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Last 10 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 8 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 5: none
- Away, last 10: none
Bahamas| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
|---|
Saint Martin at home: Data unavailable.
Bahamas away: Data unavailable.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Saint Martin | Bahamas |
|---|
| League position | 20th | 33rd |
|---|
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 1 and 1) | 8.00 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 1 and 1) | 0.00 | 8.00 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Curacao | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Aruba | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 | Barbados | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Cuba | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 11 | Suriname | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Antigua and Barbuda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 6 |
| 13 | St. Lucia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 14 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 15 | Jamaica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | French Guiana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 17 | Dominican Republic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 18 | Guatemala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 4 |
| 19 | Guadeloupe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Saint Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | +8 | 3 |
| 21 | Costa Rica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 22 | Honduras | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 | Martinique | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 24 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 25 | Belize | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 26 | Grenada | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 27 | El Salvador | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 |
| 28 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 29 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 1 |
| 30 | Bonaire | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Sint Maarten | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 |
| 33 | Bahamas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| Last 10 (1) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|
| Away, last 10: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
|---|