· North & Central America - CONCACAF Nations League
St. Vincent and the Grenadines v Sint MaartenSt. Vincent and the GrenadinesHomevSint MaartenAwaySt. Vincent and the GrenadinesHomevSint MaartenAway
Final score St. Vincent and the Grenadines 4, Sint Maarten 0.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance when published
Our model · No price
The model expects St. Vincent and the Grenadines to score 1.8 goals and Sint Maarten 1.2.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: St. Vincent and the Grenadines win 52%, Draw 24%, Sint Maarten win 24%.
52%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines win
24%
Draw
24%
Sint Maarten win
Why this pick
St. Vincent and the Grenadines host Sint Maarten in the CONCACAF Nations League, North & Central America.
Our model gives an 80% chance of 2 or more goals in the match.
2 of St. Vincent and the Grenadines's last 3 league matches had two or more goals; 1 of Sint Maarten's last 3 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Tue 6 Oct, 07:42 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Key numbers
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines win
52%
Draw
24%
Sint Maarten win
24%
Over 1.5 goals
80%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Both teams score
57%
Expected goals (our model)
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1.8, Sint Maarten 1.2
Key factors
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines sit 5th with 9 points; Sint Maarten sit 31st with 0 points.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines have taken 9 points from their last 3 matches; Sint Maarten 0 from 3.
At home, St. Vincent and the Grenadines have taken 3 points from their last 1; away, Sint Maarten have taken 0 from their last 1.
League context
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the CONCACAF Nations League, before kick-off.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines sit 5th with 9 points; Sint Maarten sit 31st with 0. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The league's last stored table, updated before kick-off (matched by team name).
4thHaiti9 points from 3 games · goal difference +6
5thSt. Vincent and the Grenadines9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
6thAruba9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
30thBonaire0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4
31stSint Maarten0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4
32ndBermuda0 points from 3 games · goal difference -7
#
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
4
Haiti
3
3
0
0
9
3
+6
9
5
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
3
3
0
0
7
3
+4
9
6
Aruba
3
3
0
0
4
0
+4
9
30
Bonaire
3
0
0
3
3
7
-4
0
31
Sint Maarten
3
0
0
3
2
6
-4
0
32
Bermuda
3
0
0
3
4
11
-7
Show full tableShow less
1stGuyana12 points from 4 games · goal difference +14
2ndMontserrat9 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
3rdCuracao9 points from 4 games · goal difference +6
4thHaiti9 points from 3 games · goal difference +6
5thSt. Vincent and the Grenadines9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
6thAruba9 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
7thBarbados7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
8thCuba7 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
9thSt. Kitts and Nevis7 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
10thPuerto Rico7 points from 4 games · goal difference +4
11thSuriname7 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Sint Maarten3 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away4–2
WWonat Belize30 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away1–0
WWonv French Guiana26 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home2–1
Sint Maarten: recent fixtures
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv St. Vincent and the Grenadines3 Oct 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home2–4
LLostat French Guiana29 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Away0–1
LLostv Belize27 Sept 2026 · CONCACAF Nations League · Home0–1
Form, home and away
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then St. Vincent and the Grenadines at home and Sint Maarten away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 3 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 7 scored, 3 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Home, last 5 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Home, last 10 (1)1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 2 scored, 1 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (3)
3
3
0
0
7
3
+4
9
3.00
1
0
Last 10 (3)
3
3
0
0
7
3
+4
9
3.00
1
0
Home, last 5 (1)
1
1
0
0
2
1
+1
3
3.00
0
0
Home, last 10 (1)
1
1
0
0
2
1
+1
3
3.00
0
0
Sint Maarten
Last 5 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 6 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (3)0 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 2 scored, 6 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Away, last 5 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 1 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Away, last 10 (1)0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 0 scored, 1 conceded · 0.00 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Sint Maarten
Sample
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pts
PPG
CS
FTS
Last 5 (3)
3
0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Sint Maarten away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Team strength, attack and defence
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
Measure
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Sint Maarten
League position
5th
31st
Points per game
3.00
0.00
Attack: goals per game (last 3 and 3)
2.33
0.67
Defence: conceded per game (last 3 and 3)
1.00
2.00
Clean sheets
1
0
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
0
12thAntigua and Barbuda6 points from 3 games · goal difference +7
13thSt. Lucia6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
14thTurks and Caicos Islands6 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
15thJamaica6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
16thFrench Guiana6 points from 3 games · goal difference +2
17thDominican Republic6 points from 3 games · goal difference -1
18thGuatemala4 points from 3 games · goal difference +5
19thGuadeloupe4 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
20thSaint Martin3 points from 1 game · goal difference +8
21stCosta Rica3 points from 3 games · goal difference 0
22ndHonduras3 points from 3 games · goal difference -1
23rdMartinique3 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
24thTrinidad and Tobago3 points from 4 games · goal difference -2
25thBelize3 points from 3 games · goal difference -2
26thGrenada3 points from 3 games · goal difference -5
27thEl Salvador3 points from 3 games · goal difference -6
28thCayman Islands2 points from 4 games · goal difference -5
29thDominica1 points from 4 games · goal difference -13
30thBonaire0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4
31stSint Maarten0 points from 3 games · goal difference -4
32ndBermuda0 points from 3 games · goal difference -7
33rdBahamas0 points from 1 game · goal difference -8
34thNicaragua0 points from 3 games · goal difference -9
35thAnguilla0 points from 4 games · goal difference -11
36thBritish Virgin Islands0 points from 4 games · goal difference -11