Tamworth vs Leeds United U21 prediction, Tuesday 6 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· England - National League Cup
Tamworth v Leeds United U21HomevAwayHomevAway
Final score Tamworth 1, Leeds United U21 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Tamworth win 31%, Draw 21%, Leeds United U21 win 47%.
Tamworth host Leeds United U21 in the National League Cup, England.
Our model gives Tamworth a 31% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Leeds United U21 47%.
The model expects Tamworth to score 1.8 goals and Leeds United U21 2.1.
Top factors
- Tamworth sit 15th with 3 points; Leeds United U21 sit 18th with 3 points.
- Tamworth have taken 3 points from their last 2 matches; Leeds United U21 3 from 2.
- At home, Tamworth have taken 3 points from their last 2; away, Leeds United U21 have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Expected goals (our model)Tamworth 1.8, Leeds United U21 2.1 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the National League Cup, before kick-off.
Tamworth sit 15th with 3 points; Leeds United U21 sit 18th with 3. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Tamworth.
The league's last stored table, updated before kick-off (matched by team name).
- 14th AFC Hornchurch3 points from 2 games · goal difference +2
- 15th Tamworth3 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
- 16th Wolves U213 points from 2 games · goal difference -1
- 17th Derby County U213 points from 2 games · goal difference -2
- 18th Leeds United U213 points from 2 games · goal difference -2
- 19th Sutton United2 points from 2 games · goal difference 0
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 14 | AFC Hornchurch | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 15 | Tamworth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Wolves U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Derby County U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Leeds United U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | Sutton United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Middlesbrough U219 points from 3 games · goal difference +14
- 2nd Boreham Wood7 points from 3 games · goal difference +4
- 3rd Halifax Town6 points from 2 games · goal difference +7
- 4th Scunthorpe United6 points from 2 games · goal difference +5
- 5th Truro City6 points from 2 games · goal difference +4
- 6th West Ham United U216 points from 2 games · goal difference +4
- 7th Woking4 points from 2 games · goal difference +3
- 8th Birmingham City U214 points from 2 games · goal difference +1
- 9th Braintree Town4 points from 2 games · goal difference +1
- 10th Everton U214 points from 2 games · goal difference +1
- 11th Norwich City U21
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Middlesbrough U219 Sept 2026 · National League Cup · Home1–3
WWonv Newcastle United U2118 Aug 2026 · National League Cup · Home5–3
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
WWonat Solihull Moors8 Sept 2026 · National League Cup · Away3–2
LLostat Boreham Wood18 Aug 2026 · National League Cup · Away2–5
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Tamworth at home and Leeds United U21 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Tamworth
- Last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 6 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 6 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 6 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 6 scored, 6 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Tamworth| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Leeds United U21
- Last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 5 scored, 7 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 0 clean sheets · failed to score in 0
Leeds United U21| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 |
|---|
Tamworth at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Leeds United U21 away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Tamworth | Leeds United U21 |
|---|
| League position | 15th | 18th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 2 and 2) | 3.00 | 2.50 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 2 and 2) | 3.00 | 3.50 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
4 points from 2 games · goal difference +1
12th West Brom U214 points from 2 games · goal difference +113th Wealdstone3 points from 2 games · goal difference +414th AFC Hornchurch3 points from 2 games · goal difference +215th Tamworth3 points from 2 games · goal difference 016th Wolves U213 points from 2 games · goal difference -117th Derby County U213 points from 2 games · goal difference -218th Leeds United U213 points from 2 games · goal difference -219th Sutton United2 points from 2 games · goal difference 020th Fulham U211 points from 2 games · goal difference -121st Nottingham Forest U211 points from 2 games · goal difference -122nd Worthing1 points from 2 games · goal difference -123rd Gateshead1 points from 2 games · goal difference -224th Aldershot Town1 points from 2 games · goal difference -325th Ipswich Town U211 points from 2 games · goal difference -326th Leicester U211 points from 2 games · goal difference -327th Boston United0 points from 2 games · goal difference -228th Newcastle United U210 points from 2 games · goal difference -329th Solihull Moors0 points from 2 games · goal difference -330th Southampton U210 points from 2 games · goal difference -431st Stoke City U210 points from 2 games · goal difference -1032nd Hartlepool United0 points from 2 games · goal difference -11| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 9 |
| 2 | Boreham Wood | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Halifax Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 4 | Scunthorpe United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 5 | Truro City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | West Ham United U21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 7 | Woking | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 8 | Birmingham City U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Everton U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 11 | Norwich City U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | West Brom U21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 13 | Wealdstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 3 |
| 14 | AFC Hornchurch | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 15 | Tamworth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Wolves U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Derby County U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Leeds United U21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | Sutton United | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 | Fulham U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 22 | Worthing | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Gateshead | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 24 | Aldershot Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 26 | Leicester U21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | Boston United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Newcastle United U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Solihull Moors | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Southampton U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Stoke City U21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
| 32 | Hartlepool United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 0 |
| Last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
|---|