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Yesterday: 13 of 20 top picks won. See every pick

Today's picks

Today, Sunday 18 October · 26 picks

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Starting in the next 3 hours (4)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

86%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard

Last 5 games

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

Each of NEC Nijmegen's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

79%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 87% · Price 1.07

Short price: returns 7p for every £1 if it wins

TwenteUtrecht

Last 5 games

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

Each of Utrecht's last 8 league matches had three or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

76%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price 1.19

LyonNice

Last 5 games

· Ligue 1, France

Each of Lyon's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

83%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price 1.09

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Real MadridSevilla

Last 5 games

· La Liga, Spain

4 of Real Madrid's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

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Trial leagues (1)

10 of 11 trial picks shown

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Kick-off , Bundesliga, Germany

Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg

Final score Bayer Leverkusen 2, SC Freiburg 1.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Bayer Leverkusen win 65%, Draw 18%, SC Freiburg win 16%.

Why this pick

Bayer Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, Germany.

Our model gives an 82% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 83%.

The model expects Bayer Leverkusen to score 2.4 goals and SC Freiburg 1.0.

5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of SC Freiburg's last 5 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Bayer Leverkusen have scored 2.6 goals a game and conceded 0.2 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, SC Freiburg have scored 2.6 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 17 Oct, 20:21 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 17 Oct, 20:20 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.