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Today's picks

Today, Sunday 18 October · 26 picks

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

86%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard

Last 5 games

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

Each of NEC Nijmegen's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

79%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 87% · Price 1.07

Short price: returns 7p for every £1 if it wins

TwenteUtrecht

Last 5 games

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

Each of Utrecht's last 8 league matches had three or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

76%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price 1.19

LyonNice

Last 5 games

· Ligue 1, France

Each of Lyon's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

83%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price 1.09

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Real MadridSevilla

Last 5 games

· La Liga, Spain

4 of Real Madrid's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

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Kick-off , Eredivisie, Netherlands

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

86%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

Each of NEC Nijmegen's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: NEC Nijmegen win 45%, Draw 21%, Fortuna Sittard win 34%.

Why this pick

NEC Nijmegen host Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, Netherlands.

Our model gives an 86% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 86%.

The model expects NEC Nijmegen to score 2.1 goals and Fortuna Sittard 1.8.

6 of NEC Nijmegen's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 5 of Fortuna Sittard's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, NEC Nijmegen have scored 1.2 goals a game and conceded 2.0 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Fortuna Sittard have scored 2.2 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 17 Oct, 20:21 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 17 Oct, 20:21 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.