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Picks for Sunday 25 October

Sunday 25 October

15 of 20 top picks won

Expected about 17 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 181 of 220 top picks won. Expected about 176.

Other picks: 7 of 7 won

Trial leagues (10 shown): 8 of 10 won

Expected about 8 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 53 of 62 trial picks won. Expected about 50.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.17

Fortuna SittardExcelsior10

90+1' Guth

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

InterFiorentina21

65' Jiménez, 90+1' Thuram, 90+7' Zieliński (pen)

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

89%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 88% · Price then 1.06

Short price: returns 6p for every £1 if it wins

PSV EindhovenFeyenoord11

21' Til, 54' Moussa

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

86%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

NEC NijmegenGroningen22

11' Willumsson, 34' Willumsson, 57' Bischoff, 71' Lebreton

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.19

Manchester UnitedBournemouth03

38' Rocha, 43' Tavernier, 71' Evanilson

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.15

LiverpoolBrighton20

17' Groß (og), 21' Isak

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 72% · Price then 1.31

GenoaVenezia10

25' Ellertsson

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.19

MotherwellHeart Of Midlothian02

29' Braga, 86' Miller

· Premiership, Scotland

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

86%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen30

79' Kramarić (pen), 89' Prass, 90+5' Moerstedt

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 76% · Price then 1.24

Celta VigoReal Betis00

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

87%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

Sparta RotterdamAjax12

22' Ouazane, 43' Toornstra, 45+1' Arokodare

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

RennesStrasbourg30

34' Dia, 41' Szymański, 61' Szymański

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.18

ToulouseEstac Troyes00

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.15

MarseilleLe Havre43

5' Egan-Riley, 33' Weah, 50' Paixão, 55' Abdelli, 77' Maja (pen), 86' N'Diaye, 89' Maja

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 89% · Price then 1.05

Short price: returns 5p for every £1 if it wins

SC FreiburgBayern München13

16' Upamecano, 42' Gnabry, 82' Bischof (og), 90+5' Olise

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.17

Real SociedadLevante21

6' Óskarsson, 22' Gómez, 27' Turrientes

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 74% · Price then 1.26

NacionalSC Braga10

19' Baeza

· Primeira Liga, Portugal

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.12

Short price: returns 12p for every £1 if it wins

AZ AlkmaarTwente02

84' Orjasaeter, 90+3' vennegoor

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 91% · Price then 1.04

Short price: returns 4p for every £1 if it wins

BarcelonaReal Madrid12

41' Mbappé, 61' Belloli, 87' Mbappé

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.12

Short price: returns 12p for every £1 if it wins

Sporting CPAcademico Viseu12

24' Guilherme, 62' Suárez, 74' Guilherme

· Primeira Liga, Portugal

See the match

Other picks (7)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.15

HibernianCeltic12

3' Elding, 5' Kerr (og), 43' Duran

· Premiership, Scotland

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.16

Crystal PalaceNewcastle02

47' Osula, 58' Barnes

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price then 1.25

MonacoLille11

24' Mbappe, 74' Diop

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

AtalantaFrosinone44

1' Schmid, 14' Krstović, 17' Schmid, 33' Santos (pen), 45' Krstović, 48' Calò, 50' Elmas, 82' Terzić

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.20

Hull CityBrentford11

24' McBurnie (pen), 63' Ouattara

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 73% · Price then 1.28

EstorilMoreirense13

12' Mendonça, 15' Andrade, 28' John, 90+4' Neves

· Primeira Liga, Portugal

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 73% · Price then 1.28

UdineseAC Milan02

6' Pulisic, 65' Hutchinson

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Trial leagues (10)

10 of 11 trial picks shown

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price then 1.22

Chindia TargovisteCSM Satu Mare32

5' Camara, 19' Baluta, 71' Mwanga, 74' Doukoure, 84' Vasalie

· Liga II, Romania

New league for us: our record here is still building (27 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 74% · Price then 1.25

Viitorul ŞelimbărASA Targu Mures10

90+2' Monea

· Liga II, Romania

New league for us: our record here is still building (27 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.17

CS AfumatiCSA Steaua Bucureşti13

5' Perez, 36' Diomande (og), 48' Garcia, 81' Sanogo

· Liga II, Romania

New league for us: our record here is still building (27 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.13

Short price: returns 13p for every £1 if it wins

Slavia Praha IIProstějov51

7' Behensky, 31' Matousek, 42' Polasek (og), 71' Cedergren, 72' Potmesil, 90' Kohout

· FNL, Czech Republic

New league for us: our record here is still building (18 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

HavelseFC Saarbrücken32

14' Staff, 37' Berger (pen), 47' Berger (pen), 88' Voufack, 90+1' Brünker

· 3. Liga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (29 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.16

VfL OsnabrückSpVgg Greuther Fürth30

37' Kyereh, 39' Meißner, 75' Badjie

· 2. Bundesliga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.12

Short price: returns 12p for every £1 if it wins

Eintracht BraunschweigHannover 9620

17' Marie, 90+2' Sturm

· 2. Bundesliga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.16

Holstein KielDynamo Dresden30

9' Kvilitaia, 73' Therkelsen, 85' Harres

· 2. Bundesliga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price then 1.22

Preußen MünsterFortuna Köln10

78' Makridis

· 3. Liga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (29 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Waldhof MannheimHoffenheim II41

3' Dedic, 57' Gregório, 78' Boyd, 88' Boyd, 90+5' Boyd

· 3. Liga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (29 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Eredivisie, Netherlands

Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior

Final score Fortuna Sittard 1, Excelsior 0.The pick lost.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.17

Each of Excelsior's last 9 league matches had three or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Fortuna Sittard win 34%, Draw 21%, Excelsior win 44%.

Why this pick

Fortuna Sittard host Excelsior in the Eredivisie, Netherlands.

Our model gives an 85% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 80%.

The model expects Fortuna Sittard to score 1.7 goals and Excelsior 2.1.

5 of Fortuna Sittard's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Excelsior's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Fortuna Sittard have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 2.0 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Excelsior have scored 2.2 goals a game and conceded 1.6 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 24 Oct, 20:22 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 24 Oct, 20:16 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.