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Yesterday: 17 of 20 top picks won. See every pick

Today's picks

Today, Friday 16 October · 5 picks

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Starting in the next 3 hours (1)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

83%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

HeerenveenExcelsior

Last 5 games

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

Each of Excelsior's last 8 league matches had three or more goals.

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Starting in 3 to 6 hours (4)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

86%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 87% · Price 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

Eintracht Frankfurt1. FC Köln

Last 5 games

· Bundesliga, Germany

Each of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.

See the full analysis

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

77%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price 1.21

Le MansToulouse

Last 5 games

· Ligue 1, France

Each of Le Mans's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

See the full analysis

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

75%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price 1.13

Short price: returns 13p for every £1 if it wins

FrosinoneSassuolo

Last 5 games

· Serie A, Italy

Each of Sassuolo's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

See the full analysis

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

80%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price 1.24

BurnleyWolves

Last 5 games

· Championship, England

Each of Burnley's last 10 league matches had two or more goals.

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Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Serie A, Italy

Frosinone v Sassuolo

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

75%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price 1.13

Short price: returns 13p for every £1 if it wins

Each of Sassuolo's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Frosinone win 35%, Draw 27%, Sassuolo win 38%.

Why this pick

Frosinone host Sassuolo in the Serie A, Italy.

Our model gives a 75% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 83%.

The model expects Frosinone to score 1.3 goals and Sassuolo 1.4.

5 of Frosinone's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Sassuolo's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Frosinone have scored 2.2 goals a game and conceded 1.0 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Sassuolo have scored 1.2 goals a game and conceded 2.2 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Thu 15 Oct, 20:14 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Thu 15 Oct, 20:13 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.