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Picks for Saturday 31 October

Saturday 31 October

15 of 20 top picks won

Expected about 16 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 211 of 259 top picks won. Expected about 208.

Other picks: 14 of 14 won

Trial leagues (10 shown): 8 of 10 won

Expected about 8 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 84 of 99 trial picks won. Expected about 80.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.15

LevanteAtletico Madrid02

36' Grimaldo, 62' Baldini

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price then 1.25

BolognaMonza21

6' Varela (pen), 33' Pobega, 59' Bernardeschi (pen)

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 87% · Price then 1.07

Short price: returns 7p for every £1 if it wins

Bayer LeverkusenVfB Stuttgart24

14' Demirović, 22' Leweling, 28' Schick, 51' Khannouss, 65' Demirović, 79' Maza

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Werder Bremen1899 Hoffenheim20

57' Füllkrug, 82' Dinkci

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.13

Short price: returns 13p for every £1 if it wins

FC AugsburgSC Freiburg12

18' Gregoritsch, 65' Matanović, 85' Irié

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.14

Short price: returns 14p for every £1 if it wins

Borussia MönchengladbachSC Paderborn 0700

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Manchester CityBrighton01

11' Ayari

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price then 1.19

West HamWest Brom13

20' Myhre, 29' Bowen, 48' Morgan, 72' Styles

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price then 1.25

MillwallDerby41

3' Lisbie, 10' Lisbie, 17' Cundle, 84' Cooper, 87' Bilbija

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 71% · Price then 1.30

BurnleyPortsmouth00

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

86%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 89% · Price then 1.05

Short price: returns 5p for every £1 if it wins

FeyenoordFortuna Sittard11

59' Valente, 86' Zand

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.18

UdineseAS Roma25

10' Cristante, 31' Mora, 33' Malen, 37' Ndicka, 50' Zaniolo, 78' Palma, 90+2' Ghilardi

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 89% · Price then 1.06

Short price: returns 6p for every £1 if it wins

Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund22

38' Laimer, 60' Guirassy, 66' Upamecano, 89' Silva

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.14

Short price: returns 14p for every £1 if it wins

Real BetisMalaga21

38' Bartra, 45+2' Fornals, 68' Nino

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

90%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 93% · Price then 1.02

Short price: returns 2p for every £1 if it wins

PSV EindhovenWillem II70

20' Júnior, 44' Til, 50' Mijnans, 53' Bommel, 73' Pepi, 77' Sano, 81' Cornecion

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

HeerenveenNEC Nijmegen10

66' Vente

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.18

AC MilanInter31

4' Pulisic, 10' Rabiot, 22' Bastoni, 43' Moreira

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

86%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

CambuurGo Ahead Eagles40

7' Baouf, 15' Ceka, 41' Duijl, 80' Arguioui

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 90% · Price then 1.05

Short price: returns 5p for every £1 if it wins

BarcelonaAlaves61

8' Belloli, 23' López, 41' Belloli, 45+1' Yamal, 64' Yamal, 81' Gordon, 84' Díaz

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

AjaxAZ Alkmaar10

9' Arokodare

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

See the match

Other picks (14)

Published that day outside the top picks, under Show all.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.17

ChelseaManchester United20

50' Rogers, 64' Palmer (pen)

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 74% · Price then 1.27

Stoke CityPreston20

29' Wilmot, 53' Mcglynn

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

FC Schalke 04RB Leipzig02

37' Nusa (pen), 78' Cruz

· Bundesliga, Germany

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.19

KilmarnockST Johnstone22

14' McCarthy, 40' schmidt, 41' Daniels, 65' Cotterill

· Premiership, Scotland

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

MiddlesbroughCharlton30

12' Berhalter, 44' lankshear, 82' lankshear

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.13

Short price: returns 13p for every £1 if it wins

WolvesCardiff30

10' López, 15' Armstrong, 58' Krejčí

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.16

SouthamptonQPR41

11' Matsuki, 55' Bragg, 66' Schlotterbeck, 68' Kone, 90+5' Welington

· Championship, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price then 1.25

Hull CityIpswich22

22' Luís, 58' Iroegbunam, 68' McBurnie, 74' Enciso

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 77% · Price then 1.22

BrentfordNottingham Forest20

30' Milenković (og), 76' Thiago

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 72% · Price then 1.30

MoreirenseEstrela21

50' Araújo, 57' Zvonarek, 90+5' John

· Primeira Liga, Portugal

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.18

TottenhamCrystal Palace20

25' Gray, 73' Hecke

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 73% · Price then 1.26

Mamelodi SundownsDurban City41

34' Matuludi, 66' Matuludi, 79' Rayners, 86' Lwamba, 90+4' Wyk

· Premier Soccer League, South Africa

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price then 1.25

Estac TroyesLe Mans20

33' Diop, 71' Boura

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.18

FC PortoEstoril40

4' Froholdt, 64' Sainz, 70' Silva, 73' Veiga

· Primeira Liga, Portugal

See the match

Trial leagues (10)

10 of 40 trial picks shown

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

VfL WolfsburgVfL Osnabrück20

30' Reese, 49' Damar

· 2. Bundesliga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

HavelseFC Ingolstadt 0411

6' Wriedt, 12' Ugondu

· 3. Liga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (29 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.07

Short price: returns 7p for every £1 if it wins

Hoffenheim IIFC Viktoria Köln01

32' Jakob

· 3. Liga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (29 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 82% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

MSV DuisburgStuttgart II33

5' Lobinger, 8' Lobinger, 11' Casar, 40' Groiss, 73' Leij (pen), 90+3' Bujupi

· 3. Liga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (29 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

WealdstoneSouthend32

4' Chambers-Parillon, 23' Okenabirhie (pen), 39' Chambers-Parillon, 63' Norris, 90+4' Olomola

· National League, England

New league for us: our record here is still building (32 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.09

Short price: returns 9p for every £1 if it wins

Boreham WoodHartlepool43

20' Cashman (pen), 45+1' White, 47' Kouogun, 52' Deeming, 59' Miley, 87' Brunt, 90+2' Rush

· National League, England

New league for us: our record here is still building (32 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.15

Aldershot TownGateshead10

5' Peart

· National League, England

New league for us: our record here is still building (32 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

PeterboroughLuton02

3' Clark, 46' Kelly (og)

· League One, England

New league for us: our record here is still building (37 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

MVVVVV Venlo12

39' Tsigkas, 45+3' Clancy, 52' Daneels (pen)

· Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price then 1.12

Short price: returns 12p for every £1 if it wins

Karlsruher SC1. FC Heidenheim21

19' Civeja, 80' Wanitzek, 88' Vogt

· 2. Bundesliga, Germany

New league for us: our record here is still building (23 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Premier League, England

Manchester City v Brighton

Final score Manchester City 0, Brighton 1.The pick lost.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Each of Brighton's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Manchester City win 55%, Draw 22%, Brighton win 23%.

Why this pick

Manchester City host Brighton in the Premier League, England.

Our model gives an 80% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 85%.

The model expects Manchester City to score 2.0 goals and Brighton 1.2.

4 of Manchester City's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Brighton's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Manchester City have scored 3.4 goals a game and conceded 2.4 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Brighton have scored 1.4 goals a game and conceded 1.2 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Fri 30 Oct, 21:16 GMT. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 30 Oct, 20:15 GMT. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.