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Yesterday: 17 of 20 top picks won. See every pick

Today's picks

Today, Friday 16 October · 5 picks

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Starting in the next 3 hours (1)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

83%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

HeerenveenExcelsior

Last 5 games

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

Each of Excelsior's last 8 league matches had three or more goals.

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Starting in 3 to 6 hours (4)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

86%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 87% · Price 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

Eintracht Frankfurt1. FC Köln

Last 5 games

· Bundesliga, Germany

Each of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

77%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price 1.21

Le MansToulouse

Last 5 games

· Ligue 1, France

Each of Le Mans's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

75%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price 1.13

Short price: returns 13p for every £1 if it wins

FrosinoneSassuolo

Last 5 games

· Serie A, Italy

Each of Sassuolo's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

80%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price 1.24

BurnleyWolves

Last 5 games

· Championship, England

Each of Burnley's last 10 league matches had two or more goals.

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Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Premier League, Malta

Marsaxlokk v Birkirkara

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Marsaxlokk win 44%, Draw 28%, Birkirkara win 28%.

What the data says

Marsaxlokk host Birkirkara in the Premier League, Malta.

Our model gives Marsaxlokk a 44% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Birkirkara 28%.

The model expects Marsaxlokk to score 1.4 goals and Birkirkara 1.0.

Marsaxlokk have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Birkirkara have won 2 of 6.

Top factors

  • Marsaxlokk sit 3rd with 14 points; Birkirkara sit 8th with 10 points.
  • Marsaxlokk have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches; Birkirkara 4 from 5.
  • At home, Marsaxlokk have taken 7 points from their last 3; away, Birkirkara have taken 3 from their last 3.

Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.