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Yesterday: 14 of 19 top picks won. See every pick

Today's picks

Today, Monday 12 October · 3 picks

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Starting later (3)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

77%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price 1.15

AtalantaVenezia

Last 5 games

· Serie A, Italy

Each of Venezia's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

81%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 71% · Price 1.33

LevanteSevilla

Last 5 games

· La Liga, Spain

4 of Levante's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

76%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price 1.20

CoventryNewcastle

Last 5 games

· Premier League, England

Each of Newcastle's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.

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Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Primera C, Argentina

Mercedes v Lugano

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Mercedes win 40%, Draw 32%, Lugano win 28%.

What the data says

Mercedes host Lugano in the Primera C, Argentina.

Our model gives Mercedes a 40% chance of winning, a draw 32% and Lugano 28%.

The model expects Mercedes to score 1.1 goals and Lugano 0.8.

Mercedes have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Lugano have won 1 of 6.

Top factors

  • Mercedes sit 12th with 44 points; Lugano sit 9th with 46 points.
  • Mercedes have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches; Lugano 6 from 5.
  • At home, Mercedes have taken 4 points from their last 3; away, Lugano have taken 4 from their last 2.

Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.