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Yesterday: 17 of 20 top picks won. See every pick

Today's picks

Today, Friday 16 October · 5 picks

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Starting in the next 3 hours (1)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

83%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

HeerenveenExcelsior

Last 5 games

· Eredivisie, Netherlands

Each of Excelsior's last 8 league matches had three or more goals.

See the full analysis

Starting in 3 to 6 hours (4)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

86%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 87% · Price 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

Eintracht Frankfurt1. FC Köln

Last 5 games

· Bundesliga, Germany

Each of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.

See the full analysis

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

77%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price 1.21

Le MansToulouse

Last 5 games

· Ligue 1, France

Each of Le Mans's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

See the full analysis

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

75%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 83% · Price 1.13

Short price: returns 13p for every £1 if it wins

FrosinoneSassuolo

Last 5 games

· Serie A, Italy

Each of Sassuolo's last 6 league matches had two or more goals.

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Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

80%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers 75% · Price 1.24

BurnleyWolves

Last 5 games

· Championship, England

Each of Burnley's last 10 league matches had two or more goals.

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Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Premyer Liqa, Azerbaijan

Şamaxı FK v Safa Baku

Final score Şamaxı FK 3, Safa Baku 2.

No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Şamaxı FK win 54%, Draw 26%, Safa Baku win 20%.

What the data says

Şamaxı FK host Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa, Azerbaijan.

Our model gives Şamaxı FK a 54% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Safa Baku 20%.

The model expects Şamaxı FK to score 1.5 goals and Safa Baku 0.8.

Şamaxı FK have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Safa Baku have won 1 of 6.

Top factors

  • Şamaxı FK sit 6th with 10 points; Safa Baku sit 11th with 3 points.
  • Şamaxı FK have taken 9 points from their last 5 matches; Safa Baku 0 from 5.
  • At home, Şamaxı FK have taken 3 points from their last 1; away, Safa Baku have taken 3 from their last 3.

Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.