Picks for Wednesday 21 October

Wednesday 21 October

9 of 10 top picks won

Expected about 8 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 127 of 153 top picks won. Expected about 122.

Trial leagues (1 shown): 0 of 1 won

Expected about 1 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 26 of 31 trial picks won. Expected about 25.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

82%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.17

LilleGalatasaray24

2' Akgün, 7' Diaoune, 39' Diaoune, 44' Batrakov, 52' Özer (og), 61' Osimhen

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.16

ComoManchester United41

2' Paz, 49' Douvikas, 57' Paz, 76' Ramón, 90+1' Zirkzee

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

76%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 69% · Price then 1.35

Ceramica CleopatraPetrojet20

30' Gwargis, 90+5' Sulaya (pen)

· Premier League, Egypt

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 72% · Price then 1.30

LevanteAthletic Club31

20' Brugué, 22' Brugué, 67' Berenguer (pen), 90+8' Eyong

· La Liga, Spain

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

86%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 84% · Price then 1.11

Short price: returns 11p for every £1 if it wins

Club Brugge KVLens30

45+3' Vanaken, 50' Seys, 72' Forbs

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

85%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 86% · Price then 1.08

Short price: returns 8p for every £1 if it wins

Real BetisFeyenoord10

59' Isco (pen)

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 88% · Price then 1.05

Short price: returns 5p for every £1 if it wins

Aston VillaViking31

23' Barkley, 37' Buendía (pen), 62' Heggheim (og), 84' Christiansen

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

83%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 90% · Price then 1.03

Short price: returns 3p for every £1 if it wins

Real MadridRB Leipzig41

43' Silva, 52' Güler, 83' Mbappé, 85' Gomis, 87' Diomande

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 88% · Price then 1.06

Short price: returns 6p for every £1 if it wins

Sporting CPLask Linz23

5' Suárez (pen), 15' Lang, 63' Kalajdzic, 68' Danek, 89' Suárez

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

78%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 80% · Price then 1.17

Bayern MünchenArsenal22

25' Eze, 35' Davies, 61' Kane (pen), 82' Rice

· UEFA Champions League

See the match

Trial leagues (1)

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

79%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 79% · Price then 1.17

ReadingLeyton Orient10

52' Lane

· League One, England

New league for us: our record here is still building (37 picks so far).

We've only recently started covering this league, so our picks here have less track record behind them.

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , UEFA Champions League

Sporting CP v Lask Linz

Final score Sporting CP 2, Lask Linz 3.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

81%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 88% · Price then 1.06

Short price: returns 6p for every £1 if it wins

3 of Lask Linz's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Sporting CP win 61%, Draw 20%, Lask Linz win 19%.

Why this pick

Sporting CP host Lask Linz in the UEFA Champions League.

Our model gives an 81% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 88%.

The model expects Sporting CP to score 2.2 goals and Lask Linz 1.1.

Top factors

  • At home, Sporting CP have scored 2.6 goals a game and conceded 1.2 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Lask Linz have scored 2.8 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Tue 20 Oct, 20:13 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Tue 20 Oct, 20:12 BST. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.