PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Kenya - FKF Premier League
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: 3K win 18%, Draw 30%, AFC Leopards win 51%.
3K host AFC Leopards in the FKF Premier League, Kenya.
Our model gives 3K an 18% chance of winning, a draw 30% and AFC Leopards 51%.
The model expects 3K to score 0.8 goals and AFC Leopards 1.3.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:34 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the FKF Premier League, before kick-off.
3K sit 18th with 0 points; AFC Leopards sit 5th with 0. They are level on goal difference.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GOR Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 3K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then 3K at home and AFC Leopards away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 24 | 2.40 | 4 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 11 | 2.20 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (8) | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 17 | 2.13 | 3 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | 3K | AFC Leopards |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 5th |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mathare United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | GOR Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Posta Rangers FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Bandari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Police | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Migori Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Shabana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | APS Bomet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Murang'a SEAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Mombasa Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Mara Sugar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 3K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 6 |
| +2 |
| 9 |
| 1.80 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 18 | 1.80 | 4 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (7) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 1.43 | 3 | 2 |
|---|