PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· France - Ligue 1
Final score Lens 2, Lyon 1.The pick won.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
4 of Lens's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Chances of each result: Lens win 49%, Draw 26%, Lyon win 25%.
Lens host Lyon in the Ligue 1, France.
Our model gives a 77% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 82%.
The model expects Lens to score 1.6 goals and Lyon 1.2.
4 of Lens's last 5 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of Lyon's last 5 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Fri 9 Oct, 09:16 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 09:05 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ligue 1, before kick-off.
Lens sit 15th with 4 points; Lyon sit 2nd with 11. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Lyon.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: November 2010 to May 2026.
Average goals 2.8 (Lens 1.4, Lyon 1.4). Draws 26%, both teams scored 58%, over 2.5 goals 58%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Lens at home and Lyon away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 | 1.60 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 | 1.70 | 2 | 4 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Lens | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 2nd |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Rennes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 8 |
| 7 | Angers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Estac Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 10 |
| 3 |
| +7 |
| 11 |
| 2.20 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 18 | 1.80 | 4 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 11 | 1.22 | 3 | 3 |
|---|