PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· England - Championship
Final score West Ham 1, QPR 1.The pick won.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
Each of West Ham's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchChances of each result: West Ham win 46%, Draw 26%, QPR win 28%.
West Ham host QPR in the Championship, England.
Our model gives a 77% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 82%.
The model expects West Ham to score 1.6 goals and QPR 1.2.
6 of West Ham's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of QPR's last 6 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Fri 9 Oct, 09:16 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 09:05 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Championship, before kick-off.
West Ham sit 2nd with 15 points; QPR sit 6th with 13. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of West Ham.
| # | Team | P | W |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: October 2012 to January 2026.
Average goals 1.8 (West Ham 1.2, QPR 0.6). Draws 60%, both teams scored 60%, over 2.5 goals 20%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then West Ham at home and QPR away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | West Ham | QPR |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 6th |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 1.63 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 |
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 15 | +13 | 18 | 1.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 9 | 1.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (9) | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 18 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 17 | 1.70 | 2 | 3 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 | 2.20 | 1 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 18 | 1.80 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 15 |
| 10 |
| +5 |
| 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |