PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Wales - FAW Championship
Final score Afan Lido 5, Swansea University 5.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Afan Lido win 33%, Draw 25%, Swansea University win 43%.
Afan Lido host Swansea University in the FAW Championship, Wales.
Our model gives Afan Lido a 33% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Swansea University 43%.
The model expects Afan Lido to score 1.5 goals and Swansea University 1.7.
Afan Lido have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Swansea University have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the FAW Championship, before kick-off.
Afan Lido sit 18th with 11 points; Swansea University sit 3rd with 20. A gap of 23 in goal difference, in favour of Swansea University; Afan Lido have played 2 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 22 |
| 3 | Swansea University | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 20 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 17 | Buckley Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 12 |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Afan Lido at home and Swansea University away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | 3 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | 2 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Afan Lido at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Swansea University away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Afan Lido | Swansea University |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 1.10 | 2.50 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.67 | 3.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 10 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 22 |
| 3 | Swansea University | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 20 |
| 4 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 20 |
| 5 | Porthmadog | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 20 |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 19 |
| 7 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 19 |
| 8 | Bala Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 19 |
| 9 | Caersws | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 10 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Guilsfield | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 16 |
| 12 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 14 |
| 15 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 13 |
| 16 | Treowen Stars | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Buckley Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 12 |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 10 |
| 20 | Llanuwchllyn | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Rhyl | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 22 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Newport City | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 8 |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 8 |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 8 |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| 27 | Denbigh Town | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 7 |
| 28 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 7 |
| 29 | Llantwit Major | 8 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 7 |
| 30 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 7 |
| 31 | llanelli AFC | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 2 |
| 32 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -26 | 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 16 |
| 6 |
| +10 |
| 11 |
| 2.20 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 14 | 2.33 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
|---|