PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Qatar - Stars League
Final score Al Sadd 2, Al-Arabi SC 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Al Sadd win 55%, Draw 20%, Al-Arabi SC win 24%.
Al Sadd host Al-Arabi SC in the Stars League, Qatar.
Our model gives Al Sadd a 55% chance of winning, a draw 20% and Al-Arabi SC 24%.
The model expects Al Sadd to score 2.3 goals and Al-Arabi SC 1.6.
Al Sadd have won 4 of their last 4 league matches; Al-Arabi SC have won 1 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Stars League, before kick-off.
Al Sadd sit 1st with 12 points; Al-Arabi SC sit 5th with 6. A gap of 10 in goal difference, in favour of Al Sadd.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 12 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Al Shamal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Al-Arabi SC | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lusail City | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 5 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Al Sadd at home and Al-Arabi SC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 12 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 6 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 6 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 |
Al Sadd at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Al-Arabi SC away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Al Sadd | Al-Arabi SC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 5th |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 4 and 4) | 4.75 | 1.25 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 4 and 4) | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 12 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Al Shamal | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Al-Arabi SC | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lusail City | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Wakrah | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Ahli Doha | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| +2 |
| 6 |
| 1.50 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 1.50 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|