PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
Final score Almere City FC 3, FC Eindhoven 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Almere City FC win 72%, Draw 17%, FC Eindhoven win 11%.
Almere City FC host FC Eindhoven in the Eerste Divisie, Netherlands.
Our model gives Almere City FC a 72% chance of winning, a draw 17% and FC Eindhoven 11%.
The model expects Almere City FC to score 2.5 goals and FC Eindhoven 1.1.
Almere City FC have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; FC Eindhoven have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Eerste Divisie, before kick-off.
Almere City FC sit 2nd with 19 points; FC Eindhoven sit 13th with 11. A gap of 16 in goal difference, in favour of Almere City FC.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Almere City FC at home and FC Eindhoven away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | 3 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Almere City FC at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
FC Eindhoven away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Almere City FC | FC Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 13th |
| Points per game | 2.11 | 1.22 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 9 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 22 |
| 2 | Almere City FC | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 19 |
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Emmen | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 5 | MVV | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 16 |
| 6 | Roda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 14 |
| 8 | Vitesse | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | NAC Breda | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Jong AZ | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Volendam | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 12 |
| 12 | Jong PSV U21 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | FC Eindhoven | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | FC OSS | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Jong Ajax | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Dordrecht | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| 19 | De Graafschap | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 8 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 7 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 9 |
| 8 |
| +1 |
| 8 |
| 1.60 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|