PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Russia - First League
Final score Arsenal Tula 3, Spartak Kostroma 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Arsenal Tula win 29%, Draw 26%, Spartak Kostroma win 44%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchArsenal Tula host Spartak Kostroma in the First League, Russia.
Our model gives Arsenal Tula a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Spartak Kostroma 44%.
The model expects Arsenal Tula to score 1.3 goals and Spartak Kostroma 1.5.
Arsenal Tula have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Spartak Kostroma have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the First League, before kick-off.
Arsenal Tula sit 12th with 13 points; Spartak Kostroma sit 3rd with 24. A gap of 16 in goal difference, in favour of Spartak Kostroma.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Arsenal Tula at home and Spartak Kostroma away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Arsenal Tula | Spartak Kostroma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 1.08 | 2.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 4 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 2 | Ural | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 25 |
| 3 | Spartak Kostroma | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | FC Sochi | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 23 |
| 11 | Enisey | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Leningradets | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 13 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +22 | 31 |
| 2 | Ural | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 25 |
| 3 | Spartak Kostroma | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 24 |
| 4 | FC Sochi | 12 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 12 | 2.40 | 4 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 2.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
Arsenal Tula at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Spartak Kostroma away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +7 |
| 23 |
| 5 | Veles | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 23 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moskva | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 21 |
| 7 | FC UFA | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Rotor Volgograd | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 16 |
| 10 | Volga Ulyanovsk | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Enisey | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 13 |
| 13 | Leningradets | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 13 |
| 14 | Chelyabinsk | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | FK Neftekhimik | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 12 |
| 16 | KAMAZ | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshchik | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | Ska-khabarovsk | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 6 |