Since 9 Oct: 185 of 224 top picks won. Expected about 179.
Trial leagues (10 shown): 9 of 10 won
Expected about 8 from their win chances.
Since 9 Oct: 62 of 73 trial picks won. Expected about 59.
Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.
9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.
From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.
Each of AS Roma's last 4 home matches had two or more goals.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: AS Roma win 62%, Draw 21%, Cagliari win 16%.
62%
AS Roma win
21%
Draw
16%
Cagliari win
Why this pick
AS Roma host Cagliari in the Serie A, Italy.
Our model gives a 76% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 79%.
The model expects AS Roma to score 2.0 goals and Cagliari 0.8.
5 of AS Roma's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of Cagliari's last 6 did.
Top factors
At home, AS Roma have scored 2.6 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 home matches.
Away, Cagliari have scored 1.2 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Mon 26 Oct, 20:09 GMT. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Mon 26 Oct, 20:07 GMT. Nothing after that is used.
Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.