PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Kyrgyzstan - Premier League
Final score Asia Talas 2, Toktogul 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Asia Talas win 55%, Draw 22%, Toktogul win 23%.
Asia Talas host Toktogul in the Premier League, Kyrgyzstan.
Our model gives Asia Talas a 55% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Toktogul 23%.
The model expects Asia Talas to score 2.0 goals and Toktogul 1.3.
Asia Talas have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Toktogul have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Asia Talas sit 4th with 46 points; Toktogul sit 12th with 28. A gap of 26 in goal difference, in favour of Asia Talas; Asia Talas have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Muras United | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +27 | 46 |
| 4 | Asia Talas | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 46 |
| 5 | Ozgon | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +22 | 45 |
| 11 | OshMU Aldier | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 28 |
| 12 | Toktogul | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 28 |
| 13 | Bishkek City | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 27 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Asia Talas at home and Toktogul away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 11 | 1.83 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 |
Asia Talas at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Toktogul away: Data unavailable.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Asia Talas | Toktogul |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 12th |
| Points per game | 1.92 | 1.22 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 1.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alga | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 49 |
| 2 | Bars | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | +29 | 46 |
| 3 | Muras United | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +27 | 46 |
| 4 | Asia Talas | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 46 |
| 5 | Ozgon | 22 | – | – | – | – | – | +22 | 45 |
| 6 | Alay | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 39 |
| 7 | Talant | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 30 |
| 8 | Dordoi Bishkek | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 29 |
| 9 | Neftchi | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 29 |
| 10 | Ilbirs | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 28 |
| 11 | OshMU Aldier | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 28 |
| 12 | Toktogul | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 28 |
| 13 | Bishkek City | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Asiagoal | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | Abdish-Ata | 23 | – | – | – | – | – | -27 | 14 |
| 16 | Kara-Balta | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | -44 | 9 |
| 2.20 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
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| Away, last 10: none | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
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