PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Colombia - Primera A
Final score Atletico Nacional 0, Deportes Tolima 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Atletico Nacional win 65%, Draw 22%, Deportes Tolima win 13%.
Atletico Nacional host Deportes Tolima in the Primera A, Colombia.
Our model gives Atletico Nacional a 65% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Deportes Tolima 13%.
The model expects Atletico Nacional to score 1.9 goals and Deportes Tolima 0.8.
Atletico Nacional have won 4 of their last 6 league matches; Deportes Tolima have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera A, before kick-off.
Atletico Nacional sit 1st with 77 points; Deportes Tolima sit 4th with 56. A gap of 27 in goal difference, in favour of Atletico Nacional.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | +39 | 77 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 33 | – | – | – | – | – | +23 | 61 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 56 |
| 5 | Junior | 36 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 53 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Atletico Nacional at home and Deportes Tolima away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 | 2.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
Atletico Nacional at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Deportes Tolima away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Points per game | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | +39 | 77 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 33 | – | – | – | – | – | +23 | 61 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima | 35 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 56 |
| 5 | Junior | 36 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 53 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 51 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 47 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 33 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 47 |
| 9 | Bucaramanga | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | +16 | 46 |
| 10 | Independiente Medellin | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 46 |
| 11 | Deportivo Pasto | 33 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 43 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 34 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 41 |
| 13 | Águilas Doradas | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 40 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 36 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 32 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -17 | 31 |
| 17 | Chico | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | -25 | 29 |
| 18 | Alianza Valledupar | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -26 | 28 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | -22 | 25 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 30 | – | – | – | – | – | -27 | 18 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| -2 |
| 3 |
| 0.60 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | 1.00 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|