PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Brazil - Serie A
Final score Atletico Paranaense 2, Atletico-MG 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Atletico Paranaense win 42%, Draw 29%, Atletico-MG win 29%.
Atletico Paranaense host Atletico-MG in the Serie A, Brazil.
Our model gives Atletico Paranaense a 42% chance of winning, a draw 29% and Atletico-MG 29%.
The model expects Atletico Paranaense to score 1.3 goals and Atletico-MG 1.1.
Atletico Paranaense have won 2 of their last 6 league matches; Atletico-MG have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Serie A, before kick-off.
Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd with 49 points; Atletico-MG sit 7th with 43. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Atletico Paranaense.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 48 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 43 |
| 8 | Santos | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Atletico Paranaense at home and Atletico-MG away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 1.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 |
Atletico Paranaense at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Atletico-MG away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Atletico Paranaense | Atletico-MG |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 7th |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.54 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 1.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| 41 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 43 |
| 8 | Santos | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 41 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 37 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 36 |
| 12 | Vitoria | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 36 |
| 13 | Botafogo | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 35 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 34 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 33 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 32 |
| 17 | Internacional | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 31 |
| 18 | Gremio | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 30 |
| 19 | Remo | 29 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 24 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 28 | – | – | – | – | – | -28 | 18 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 5 |
| +2 |
| 10 |
| 2.00 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 | 1.83 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 2 |
|---|