PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Uruguay - Primera División
Final score Atletico Torque 1, Danubio 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Atletico Torque win 56%, Draw 25%, Danubio win 19%.
Atletico Torque host Danubio in the Primera División, Uruguay.
Our model gives Atletico Torque a 56% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Danubio 19%.
The model expects Atletico Torque to score 1.7 goals and Danubio 1.0.
Atletico Torque have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Danubio have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera División, before kick-off.
Atletico Torque sit 3rd with 54 points; Danubio sit 15th with 29. A gap of 29 in goal difference, in favour of Atletico Torque.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +22 | 58 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 54 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 53 |
| 14 | Boston River | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 31 |
| 15 | Danubio | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 29 |
| 16 | Progreso | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -19 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Atletico Torque at home and Danubio away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | 0 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (4) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 | 1.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (4) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 | 1.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Atletico Torque at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Danubio away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Atletico Torque | Danubio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 15th |
| Points per game | 1.74 | 0.94 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 28 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | +29 | 66 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +22 | 58 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +15 | 54 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 53 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 52 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 50 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 49 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 38 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Juventud | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 33 |
| 13 | Cerro | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -22 | 33 |
| 14 | Boston River | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 31 |
| 15 | Danubio | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 29 |
| 16 | Progreso | 31 | – | – | – | – | – | -19 | 28 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 8 |
| -4 |
| 5 |
| 1.00 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 2 |
|---|