PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Kenya - FKF Premier League
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Bandari win 38%, Draw 34%, Tusker win 28%.
Bandari host Tusker in the FKF Premier League, Kenya.
Our model gives Bandari a 38% chance of winning, a draw 34% and Tusker 28%.
The model expects Bandari to score 0.9 goals and Tusker 0.7.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:34 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchOur model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Bandari 38% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the FKF Premier League, before kick-off.
Bandari sit 8th with 0 points; Tusker sit 3rd with 0. They are level on goal difference.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | GOR Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Posta Rangers FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Bandari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: March 2013 to May 2026.
Average goals 1.8 (Bandari 0.8, Tusker 1.0). Draws 19%, both teams scored 41%, over 2.5 goals 33%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Bandari at home and Tusker away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 1.40 | 3 | 3 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 | 1.30 | 4 | 4 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (7) | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 11 | 1.57 | 3 | 2 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Bandari | Tusker |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| 0 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mathare United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ulinzi Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Tusker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | GOR Mahia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | AFC Leopards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | KCB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Posta Rangers FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Bandari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Homeboyz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Police | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Migori Youth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Shabana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | APS Bomet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Murang'a SEAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Mombasa Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Mara Sugar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Nairobi United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 3K | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 12 | 1.20 | 3 | 5 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 4 |
|---|