PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Lithuania - 1 Lyga
Final score Be1 NFA 2, Dainava 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Be1 NFA win 53%, Draw 26%, Dainava win 21%.
Be1 NFA host Dainava in the 1 Lyga, Lithuania.
Our model gives Be1 NFA a 53% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Dainava 21%.
The model expects Be1 NFA to score 1.6 goals and Dainava 1.0.
Be1 NFA have won 6 of their last 6 league matches; Dainava have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the 1 Lyga, before kick-off.
Be1 NFA sit 3rd with 50 points; Dainava sit 8th with 40. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Be1 NFA; Be1 NFA have played 1 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Babrungas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 50 |
| 4 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 44 |
| 7 | BFA | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 40 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 30 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Be1 NFA at home and Dainava away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 18 | 3.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (4) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 12 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (4) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 12 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Be1 NFA at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Dainava away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Be1 NFA | Dainava |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 8th |
| Points per game | 2.08 | 1.60 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.33 | 0.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +55 | 67 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 50 |
| 4 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 44 |
| 5 | Tauras | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 43 |
| 6 | Žalgiris II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 43 |
| 7 | BFA | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 40 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 30 |
| 10 | Jonava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | Garliava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 25 |
| 12 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 22 |
| 13 | Hegelmann II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -26 | 22 |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -29 | 21 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -29 | 17 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -33 | 14 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| -4 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 | 0.83 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1.33 | 2 | 1 |
|---|