PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Israel - Liga Alef
Final score Beitar Nahariya 1, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Beitar Nahariya win 38%, Draw 27%, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm win 35%.
Beitar Nahariya host Hapoel Umm al-Fahm in the Liga Alef, Israel.
Our model gives Beitar Nahariya a 38% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 35%.
The model expects Beitar Nahariya to score 1.4 goals and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.4.
Beitar Nahariya have won 4 of their last 5 league matches; Hapoel Umm al-Fahm have won 1 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:27 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
No league table holds both teams for this fixture, so the competition context is shown instead.
Israel - Liga Alef: North - 6.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Beitar Nahariya at home and Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 12 | 2.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 24 | 2.40 | 5 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 | 2.40 | 4 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 24 | 2.40 | 5 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away: Insufficient historical data: 4 matches.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Beitar Nahariya | Hapoel Umm al-Fahm |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 1.30 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.20 | 1.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 |
Points per game from the last 10 matches (no league table).
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 7 |
| 6 |
| +1 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 1.30 | 3 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (4) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (4) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 | 1.75 | 1 | 1 |
|---|