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Picks for Monday 2 November

Monday 2 November

2 of 4 top picks won

Expected about 3 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 221 of 273 top picks won. Expected about 219.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.16

SassuoloFiorentina24

25' Lauriente, 45+2' Pellegrino, 50' Njie, 65' Lauriente, 79' Mastantuono, 90+3' Talavera

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 70% · Price then 1.35

LorientStade Brestois 2902

69' Ajorque, 90+2' Edjouma

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price then 1.21

NewcastleEverton01

49' Barry

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

BenficaAlverca10

51' Pavlidis (pen)

· Primeira Liga, Portugal

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Primeira Liga, Portugal

Benfica v Alverca

Final score Benfica 1, Alverca 0.The pick lost.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

Each of Benfica's last 9 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Benfica win 62%, Draw 20%, Alverca win 18%.

Why this pick

Benfica host Alverca in the Primeira Liga, Portugal.

Our model gives an 80% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 85%.

The model expects Benfica to score 2.2 goals and Alverca 1.0.

6 of Benfica's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 4 of Alverca's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Benfica have scored 3.0 goals a game and conceded 0.8 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Alverca have scored 1.6 goals a game and conceded 1.4 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sun 1 Nov, 20:08 GMT. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sun 1 Nov, 20:08 GMT. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.