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Picks for Monday 2 November

Monday 2 November

2 of 4 top picks won

Expected about 3 from their win chances.

Since 9 Oct: 221 of 273 top picks won. Expected about 219.

Top picks are chosen before kick-off and can't be changed.

9 October 2026: the record starts on this date. Picks on 7 and 8 October were chosen before we limited picks to 15 major leagues, so they're shown but not counted. Their results: 7 October, 11 of 16 top picks won; 8 October, 12 of 17 top picks won.

From 1 November 2026, the record counts the day's top 10 picks by win chance. Before that it counted the top 20.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.16

SassuoloFiorentina24

25' Lauriente, 45+2' Pellegrino, 50' Njie, 65' Lauriente, 79' Mastantuono, 90+3' Talavera

· Serie A, Italy

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Won

77%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 70% · Price then 1.35

LorientStade Brestois 2902

69' Ajorque, 90+2' Edjouma

· Ligue 1, France

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

75%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 78% · Price then 1.21

NewcastleEverton01

49' Barry

· Premier League, England

See the match

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

Lost

80%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 85% · Price then 1.10

Short price: returns 10p for every £1 if it wins

BenficaAlverca10

51' Pavlidis (pen)

· Primeira Liga, Portugal

See the match

Our public record starts on 9 Oct 2026.

Back to today's picks

Kick-off , Serie A, Italy

Sassuolo v Fiorentina

Final score Sassuolo 2, Fiorentina 4.The pick won.

Over 1.5 goals2 or more goals in the match

84%win chance when published

Our model · Bookmakers 81% · Price then 1.16

Each of Sassuolo's last 9 league matches had two or more goals.

Our model's chances

Chances of each result: Sassuolo win 43%, Draw 22%, Fiorentina win 35%.

Why this pick

Sassuolo host Fiorentina in the Serie A, Italy.

Our model gives an 84% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 81%.

The model expects Sassuolo to score 1.9 goals and Fiorentina 1.7.

6 of Sassuolo's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Fiorentina's last 6 did.

Top factors

  • At home, Sassuolo have scored 1.8 goals a game and conceded 2.2 in their last 5 home matches.
  • Away, Fiorentina have scored 1.6 goals a game and conceded 2.4 in their last 5 away matches.

Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sun 1 Nov, 20:08 GMT. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sun 1 Nov, 20:06 GMT. Nothing after that is used.

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.