PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Lithuania - 1 Lyga
Final score BFA 1, Žalgiris II 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: BFA win 50%, Draw 26%, Žalgiris II win 25%.
BFA host Žalgiris II in the 1 Lyga, Lithuania.
Our model gives BFA a 50% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Žalgiris II 25%.
The model expects BFA to score 1.6 goals and Žalgiris II 1.1.
BFA have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Žalgiris II have won 5 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchContext onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the 1 Lyga, before kick-off.
BFA sit 7th with 43 points; Žalgiris II sit 6th with 43. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Žalgiris II.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tauras | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 43 |
| 6 | Žalgiris II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 43 |
| 7 | BFA | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 40 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then BFA at home and Žalgiris II away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 | 2.20 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 12 | 2.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
BFA at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Žalgiris II away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | BFA | Žalgiris II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 6th |
| Points per game | 1.72 | 1.72 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +55 | 67 |
| 2 | Babrungas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 50 |
| 4 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 44 |
| 5 | Tauras | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 43 |
| 6 | Žalgiris II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 43 |
| 7 | BFA | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 43 |
| 8 | Dainava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 40 |
| 9 | Atmosfera | 24 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 30 |
| 10 | Jonava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 27 |
| 11 | Garliava | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 25 |
| 12 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 22 |
| 13 | Hegelmann II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -26 | 22 |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -29 | 21 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -29 | 17 |
| 16 | Ekranas | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -33 | 14 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 4 |
| +3 |
| 12 |
| 2.40 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 15 | 2.50 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 9 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 9 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|