PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Germany - Bundesliga
Final score Borussia Dortmund 2, Werder Bremen 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Borussia Dortmund win 80%, Draw 14%, Werder Bremen win 6%.
Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, Germany.
Our model gives Borussia Dortmund an 80% chance of winning, a draw 14% and Werder Bremen 6%.
The model expects Borussia Dortmund to score 2.7 goals and Werder Bremen 0.8.
Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of their last 4 league matches; Werder Bremen have won 2 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 09:05 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Bundesliga, before kick-off.
Borussia Dortmund sit 1st with 12 points; Werder Bremen sit 8th with 7. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Borussia Dortmund.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: December 2010 to May 2026.
Average goals 3.2 (Borussia Dortmund 2.1, Werder Bremen 1.1). Draws 19%, both teams scored 63%, over 2.5 goals 63%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Borussia Dortmund at home and Werder Bremen away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 15 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 25 | 2.50 | 5 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (8) | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 16 | 2.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 8th |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.75 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.40 | 1.90 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | FC Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 8 |
| 15 |
| -7 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 17 | 1.70 | 2 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 14 | 1.40 | 2 | 2 |
|---|