PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Wales - Premier League
Final score Briton Ferry 1, GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Briton Ferry win 19%, Draw 24%, GAP Connah S Quay FC win 57%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchBriton Ferry host GAP Connah S Quay FC in the Premier League, Wales.
Our model gives Briton Ferry a 19% chance of winning, a draw 24% and GAP Connah S Quay FC 57%.
The model expects Briton Ferry to score 1.1 goals and GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.9.
Briton Ferry have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; GAP Connah S Quay FC have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Briton Ferry sit 11th with 12 points; GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 2nd with 28. A gap of 29 in goal difference, in favour of GAP Connah S Quay FC.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Briton Ferry at home and GAP Connah S Quay FC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Briton Ferry | GAP Connah S Quay FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 2nd |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| W |
|---|
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 34 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 27 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 10 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 34 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 12 | 2.40 | 3 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | 3 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
Briton Ferry at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
GAP Connah S Quay FC away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| – |
| +7 |
| 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 23 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -25 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | -25 | 2 |