PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Bangladesh - Premier League
Final score Brothers Union 0, Fortis 6.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Brothers Union win 17%, Draw 25%, Fortis win 58%.
Brothers Union host Fortis in the Premier League, Bangladesh.
Our model gives Brothers Union a 17% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Fortis 58%.
The model expects Brothers Union to score 1.1 goals and Fortis 2.0.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:23 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 8% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Brothers Union 17% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Brothers Union sit 7th with 17 points; Fortis sit 3rd with 35. A gap of 29 in goal difference, in favour of Fortis.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 15 | +22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 27 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: February 2024 to May 2026.
Average goals 2.1 (Brothers Union 0.9, Fortis 1.3). Draws 57%, both teams scored 57%, over 2.5 goals 14%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Brothers Union at home and Fortis away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 4 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 6 | 0.60 | 1 | 6 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 3 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 | 0.90 | 3 | 4 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Brothers Union | Fortis |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 0.94 | 1.94 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.70 | 2.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.10 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| -13 |
| 17 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Bashundhara Kings | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 18 | +24 | 41 |
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 15 | +22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 44 | -31 | 10 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 13 |
| 6 |
| +7 |
| 9 |
| 1.80 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 10 | +15 | 19 | 1.90 | 4 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 17 | 1.89 | 3 | 1 |
|---|