PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· San Marino - Campionato
Final score Cailungo 1, Libertas 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Cailungo win 34%, Draw 27%, Libertas win 40%.
Cailungo host Libertas in the Campionato, San Marino.
Our model gives Cailungo a 34% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Libertas 40%.
The model expects Cailungo to score 1.3 goals and Libertas 1.4.
Cailungo have won 1 of their last 4 league matches; Libertas have won 1 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchContext onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Campionato, before kick-off.
Cailungo sit 11th with 3 points; Libertas sit 8th with 5. They are level on goal difference.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Cailungo at home and Libertas away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (4) | 4 | 1 |
Cailungo at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Libertas away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Cailungo | Libertas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 8th |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 4 and 4) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 4 and 4) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Virtus | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 10 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 9 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Domagnano | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 2 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| -1 |
| 5 |
| 1.25 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (4) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 | 1.25 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 |
|---|