PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· South Korea - K League 2
Final score Cheongju 3, Seongnam FC 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Cheongju win 18%, Draw 31%, Seongnam FC win 51%.
Cheongju host Seongnam FC in the K League 2, South Korea.
Our model gives Cheongju an 18% chance of winning, a draw 31% and Seongnam FC 51%.
The model expects Cheongju to score 0.8 goals and Seongnam FC 1.5.
Cheongju have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Seongnam FC have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:21 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Cheongju 18% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the K League 2, before kick-off.
Cheongju sit 11th with 29 points; Seongnam FC sit 10th with 31. A gap of 8 in goal difference, in favour of Seongnam FC; Cheongju have played 1 more.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 34 |
| 10 | Seongnam FC | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Cheongju | 26 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 29 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 29 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: April 2023 to March 2026.
Average goals 2.1 (Cheongju 1.0, Seongnam FC 1.1). Draws 55%, both teams scored 64%, over 2.5 goals 27%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Cheongju at home and Seongnam FC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 | 1.20 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 5 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 12 | 1.20 | 2 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Cheongju | Seongnam FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 10th |
| Points per game | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.70 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 20 | +19 | 53 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 50 | 29 | +21 | 48 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 30 | +15 | 48 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 48 | 35 | +13 | 46 |
| 5 | Hwaseong | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 44 |
| 6 | Busan I Park | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 41 |
| 7 | Gimpo Citizen | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 35 |
| 8 | Asan Mugunghwa | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 34 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 34 |
| 10 | Seongnam FC | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 31 |
| 11 | Cheongju | 26 | 5 | 14 | 7 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 29 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 29 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 25 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 23 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 22 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 43 | -15 | 21 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 25 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 49 | -30 | 13 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 6 |
| +1 |
| 8 |
| 1.60 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 1.50 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 1.40 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 | 1.10 | 3 | 5 |
|---|