PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· South Korea - K League 1
Final score Daejeon Citizen 2, Jeonbuk Motors 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Daejeon Citizen win 23%, Draw 31%, Jeonbuk Motors win 46%.
Daejeon Citizen host Jeonbuk Motors in the K League 1, South Korea.
Our model gives Daejeon Citizen a 23% chance of winning, a draw 31% and Jeonbuk Motors 46%.
The model expects Daejeon Citizen to score 0.9 goals and Jeonbuk Motors 1.3.
Daejeon Citizen have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Jeonbuk Motors have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:19 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Daejeon Citizen 24% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the K League 1, before kick-off.
Daejeon Citizen sit 6th with 40 points; Jeonbuk Motors sit 4th with 44. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Jeonbuk Motors.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 44 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 40 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 40 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: April 2023 to July 2026.
Average goals 2.3 (Daejeon Citizen 1.0, Jeonbuk Motors 1.3). Draws 50%, both teams scored 57%, over 2.5 goals 36%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Daejeon Citizen at home and Jeonbuk Motors away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 11 | 2.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 20 | 2.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 | 2.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 18 | 1.80 | 3 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Daejeon Citizen | Jeonbuk Motors |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 4th |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.47 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.30 | 1.40 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 25 | +31 | 62 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 40 | +5 | 47 |
| 3 | Jeju United FC | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 44 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 40 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 40 |
| 8 | Incheon United | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 39 |
| 9 | FC Anyang | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 38 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 30 | 5 | 18 | 7 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 30 | 1 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 15 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 6 |
| +2 |
| 8 |
| 1.60 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 14 | 1.40 | 3 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 1.20 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (9) | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 | 1.22 | 3 | 3 |
|---|