PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Hong Kong - Premier League
Final score Eastern 1, North District 3.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Eastern win 42%, Draw 20%, North District win 37%.
Eastern host North District in the Premier League, Hong Kong.
Our model gives Eastern a 42% chance of winning, a draw 20% and North District 37%.
The model expects Eastern to score 1.8 goals and North District 1.8.
Eastern have won 1 of their last 4 league matches; North District have won 3 of 4.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:35 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Eastern 37% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Eastern sit 5th with 0 points; North District sit 3rd with 0. They are level on goal difference.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Eastern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: March 2024 to May 2026.
Average goals 3.3 (Eastern 2.3, North District 1.0). Draws 0%, both teams scored 67%, over 2.5 goals 78%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Eastern at home and North District away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 16 | 1.60 | 3 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 18 | 1.80 | 4 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Eastern | North District |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.40 | 2.30 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Warriors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | North District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Eastern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Southern District | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Shatin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| +13 |
| 13 |
| 2.60 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 | 1.50 | 4 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (8) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 14 | 1.75 | 2 | 0 |
|---|