PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Kazakhstan - 1. Division
Final score Ekibastuz 1, Khan Tengri 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Ekibastuz win 50%, Draw 22%, Khan Tengri win 29%.
Ekibastuz host Khan Tengri in the 1. Division, Kazakhstan.
Our model gives Ekibastuz a 50% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Khan Tengri 29%.
The model expects Ekibastuz to score 2.0 goals and Khan Tengri 1.5.
Ekibastuz have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Khan Tengri have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:27 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 9% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Ekibastuz 50% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the 1. Division, before kick-off.
Ekibastuz sit 10th with 26 points; Khan Tengri sit 11th with 25. A gap of 7 in goal difference, in favour of Khan Tengri.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Arys | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Ekibastuz | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 53 | -22 | 26 |
| 11 | Khan Tengri | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 25 |
| 12 | Aktobe Jas | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 73 | -31 | 24 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: June 2023 to July 2026.
Average goals 3.0 (Ekibastuz 1.5, Khan Tengri 1.5). Draws 13%, both teams scored 63%, over 2.5 goals 63%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Ekibastuz at home and Khan Tengri away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 9 | 0.90 | 1 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | 1.20 | 0 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 10 | 1.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Ekibastuz | Khan Tengri |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 11th |
| Points per game | 1.13 | 1.09 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.90 | 1.90 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhter Karagandy | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 8 | +58 | 65 |
| 2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 23 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 12 | +54 | 56 |
| 3 | Turan Turkistan | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 50 |
| 4 | Akademiya Ontustik | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 43 |
| 5 | Astana II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 33 |
| 6 | Jaiyq | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 31 |
| 7 | Taraz | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 30 |
| 8 | Kaspij Aktau 2 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 28 |
| 9 | Arys | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 27 |
| 10 | Ekibastuz | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 53 | -22 | 26 |
| 11 | Khan Tengri | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 25 |
| 12 | Aktobe Jas | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 73 | -31 | 24 |
| 13 | Tobol 2 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 | Yelimay Semey 2 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 50 | -31 | 12 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 10 |
| 12 |
| -2 |
| 7 |
| 1.40 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 | 0.80 | 2 | 6 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 7 | 0.70 | 1 | 4 |
|---|