PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Poland - III Liga - Group 2
Final score Elana Toruń 1, Flota Świnoujście 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Elana Toruń win 43%, Draw 23%, Flota Świnoujście win 34%.
Elana Toruń host Flota Świnoujście in the III Liga - Group 2, Poland.
Our model gives Elana Toruń a 43% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Flota Świnoujście 34%.
The model expects Elana Toruń to score 1.8 goals and Flota Świnoujście 1.6.
Elana Toruń have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Flota Świnoujście have won 1 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the III Liga - Group 2, before kick-off.
Elana Toruń sit 14th with 10 points; Flota Świnoujście sit 10th with 14. A gap of 1 in goal difference, in favour of Flota Świnoujście.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Flota Świnoujście | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Unia Swarzędz | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 13 | Gedania Gdansk | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Elana Toruń | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 10 |
| 15 | Kotwica Kórnik | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Elana Toruń at home and Flota Świnoujście away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
Elana Toruń at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Flota Świnoujście away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Elana Toruń | Flota Świnoujście |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 10th |
| Points per game | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.00 | 2.83 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| 10 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Luzino | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +18 | 25 |
| 3 | Kluczevia Stargard | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 19 |
| 4 | Stargard Szczeciński | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | Wda Świecie | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 18 |
| 6 | Kalisz | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 17 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 16 |
| 8 | Lech Poznań II | 9 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Flota Świnoujście | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Unia Swarzędz | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 13 |
| 12 | Grom Nowy Staw | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 13 |
| 13 | Gedania Gdansk | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Elana Toruń | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 10 |
| 15 | Kotwica Kórnik | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -14 | 10 |
| 16 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Victoria Września | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 8 |
| 18 | Lipno Stęszew | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 5 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 12 |
| -8 |
| 4 |
| 0.80 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 2 |
|---|