PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd
Final score Erlbach 3, TuS Geretsried 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Erlbach win 60%, Draw 26%, TuS Geretsried win 15%.
Erlbach host TuS Geretsried in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, Germany.
Our model gives Erlbach a 60% chance of winning, a draw 26% and TuS Geretsried 15%.
The model expects Erlbach to score 1.6 goals and TuS Geretsried 0.8.
Erlbach have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; TuS Geretsried have won 0 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, before kick-off.
Erlbach sit 4th with 23 points; TuS Geretsried sit 18th with 9. A gap of 24 in goal difference, in favour of Erlbach.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1880 Wasserburg | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 25 |
| 4 | Erlbach | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Pfaffenhofen | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 23 |
| 17 | Schalding-Heining | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 10 |
| 18 | TuS Geretsried | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 9 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Erlbach at home and TuS Geretsried away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 | 1.60 | 3 | 2 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | 4 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 | 2.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 |
Erlbach at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
TuS Geretsried away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Erlbach | TuS Geretsried |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 18th |
| Points per game | 1.77 | 0.69 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.33 | 1.83 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 1 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pipinsried | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +20 | 29 |
| 2 | Landshut | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +12 | 25 |
| 3 | 1880 Wasserburg | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 25 |
| 4 | Erlbach | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Pfaffenhofen | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 23 |
| 6 | Hankofen-Hailing | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 22 |
| 7 | Sportfreunde Schwaig | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 20 |
| 8 | Ismaning | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Heimstetten | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | 1860 München II | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 11 | Gundelfingen | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -4 | 15 |
| 12 | Kottern | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 15 |
| 13 | Schwabmünchen | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Deisenhofen | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Kirchanschöring | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | 1860 Rosenheim | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 11 |
| 17 | Schalding-Heining | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -20 | 10 |
| 18 | TuS Geretsried | 13 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 9 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 10 |
| -9 |
| 1 |
| 0.20 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 5 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 3 |
|---|