PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Portugal - Liga Revelação U23
Final score Estoril U23 1, Sporting CP U23 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Estoril U23 win 28%, Draw 24%, Sporting CP U23 win 48%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchEstoril U23 host Sporting CP U23 in the Liga Revelação U23, Portugal.
Our model gives Estoril U23 a 28% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Sporting CP U23 48%.
The model expects Estoril U23 to score 1.5 goals and Sporting CP U23 1.9.
Estoril U23 have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Sporting CP U23 have won 4 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:27 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 10% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Estoril U23 27% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Liga Revelação U23, before kick-off.
Estoril U23 sit 3rd with 13 points; Sporting CP U23 sit 1st with 15. A gap of 2 in goal difference, in favour of Sporting CP U23.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2020 to December 2025.
Average goals 3.1 (Estoril U23 1.7, Sporting CP U23 1.4). Draws 25%, both teams scored 63%, over 2.5 goals 56%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Estoril U23 at home and Sporting CP U23 away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Estoril U23 | Sporting CP U23 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 1st |
| Points per game | 1.86 | 2.14 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.00 | 1.90 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Estoril U23 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U23 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP U23 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu U23 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Estoril U23 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U23 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 | 2.20 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 17 | 1.70 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 8 | 1.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (9) | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 17 | 1.89 | 2 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 11 | 2.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 18 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 | 1.00 | 1 | 2 |
| 7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 5 |
| +3 |
| 12 |
| 5 | Felgueiras U23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Farense U23 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Sporting Braga U23 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Vizela U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Benfica U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Santa Clara U23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 | Moreirense U23 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente U23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | União Leiria U23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Famalicão U23 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Leixões U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Torreense U23 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Penafiel U23 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 | Estrela U23 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 5 |
| 19 | Portimonense U23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 20 | Marítimo U23 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |