PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the match· Bulgaria - Second League
Final score Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2, Fratria 0.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Etar Veliko Tarnovo win 27%, Draw 26%, Fratria win 47%.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo host Fratria in the Second League, Bulgaria.
Our model gives Etar Veliko Tarnovo a 27% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Fratria 47%.
The model expects Etar Veliko Tarnovo to score 1.2 goals and Fratria 1.6.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Fratria have won 3 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Second League, before kick-off.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo sit 12th with 14 points; Fratria sit 3rd with 22. A gap of 11 in goal difference, in favour of Fratria; Etar Veliko Tarnovo have played 1 fewer.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 23 |
| 3 | Fratria | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 21 |
| 11 | Marek | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home and Fratria away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 |
Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Fratria away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Fratria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 3rd |
| Points per game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 2.67 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| 13 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vihren | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 24 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +14 | 23 |
| 3 | Fratria | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +10 | 21 |
| 5 | Beroe | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 6 | Rilski Sportist | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +4 | 18 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +3 | 17 |
| 8 | Yantra 2019 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | +5 | 14 |
| 11 | Marek | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Spartak Pleven | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 13 |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | -1 | 12 |
| 15 | Montana | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | -29 | 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 9 |
| 5 |
| +4 |
| 9 |
| 1.80 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 12 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
|---|