PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Israel - Liga Alef
Final score FC Jerusalem 0, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: FC Jerusalem win 46%, Draw 26%, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi win 29%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchFC Jerusalem host Maccabi Kiryat Malachi in the Liga Alef, Israel.
Our model gives FC Jerusalem a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 29%.
The model expects FC Jerusalem to score 1.6 goals and Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.2.
FC Jerusalem have won 3 of their last 5 league matches; Maccabi Kiryat Malachi have won 3 of 5.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:24 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
These chances include head-to-head context at 6% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave FC Jerusalem 47% to win.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
No league table holds both teams for this fixture, so the competition context is shown instead.
Israel - Liga Alef: South - 6.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: September 2022 to January 2026.
Average goals 2.0 (FC Jerusalem 0.6, Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1.4). Draws 20%, both teams scored 40%, over 2.5 goals 60%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then FC Jerusalem at home and Maccabi Kiryat Malachi away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | FC Jerusalem | Maccabi Kiryat Malachi |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points per game | 2.10 | 2.20 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 5 |
Points per game from the last 10 matches (no league table).
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 11 | 2.20 | 1 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 21 | 2.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 | 1.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 6 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 11 | 2.20 | 2 | 1 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 22 | 2.20 | 5 | 2 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 11 | 2.20 | 1 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 | 1.83 | 1 | 2 |