PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Colombia - Primera A
Final score Fortaleza FC 1, Millonarios 1.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Fortaleza FC win 28%, Draw 27%, Millonarios win 45%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchFortaleza FC host Millonarios in the Primera A, Colombia.
Our model gives Fortaleza FC a 28% chance of winning, a draw 27% and Millonarios 45%.
The model expects Fortaleza FC to score 1.2 goals and Millonarios 1.4.
Fortaleza FC have won 0 of their last 6 league matches; Millonarios have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:19 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 8% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Fortaleza FC 30% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Primera A, Apertura, before kick-off.
Fortaleza FC sit 15th with 22 points; Millonarios sit 10th with 26. A gap of 13 in goal difference, in favour of Millonarios.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: March 2016 to March 2026.
Average goals 3.1 (Fortaleza FC 1.1, Millonarios 2.0). Draws 9%, both teams scored 55%, over 2.5 goals 64%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Fortaleza FC at home and Millonarios away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Fortaleza FC | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 10th |
| Points per game | 1.16 | 1.37 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.70 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 8 | 0.80 | 3 | 2 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 1.20 | 2 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 | 1.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 | 1.50 | 3 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 | 1.40 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 |
| 3 |
| 6 |
| 25 |
| 15 |
| +10 |
| 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |