PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
PSV EindhovenHeerenveen20
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchLoading picks…
Friday 9 October
4 of 4 picks won
The day's top picks as published. Money back and void don't count, and the filters never change this figure.
PSV Eindhoven win
Won
76%win chance when published
Average of 10 bookmakers · Our model: 55%
Price when published 1.23
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%
Our public record starts on 7 Oct 2026.
· Tanzania - Ligi kuu Bara
Final score Fountain Gate 1, JKT Tanzania 2.
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Fountain Gate win 33%, Draw 30%, JKT Tanzania win 36%.
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.14
· France - Ligue 1
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
77%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Price when published 1.15
· England - Championship
See the matchOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
Won
79%win chance when published
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Price when published 1.24
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
See the matchFountain Gate host JKT Tanzania in the Ligi kuu Bara, Tanzania.
Our model gives Fountain Gate a 33% chance of winning, a draw 30% and JKT Tanzania 36%.
The model expects Fountain Gate to score 1.2 goals and JKT Tanzania 1.2.
Fountain Gate have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; JKT Tanzania have won 2 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Fri 9 Oct, 00:30 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
These chances include head-to-head context at 7% weight (at most 10%). Before it, the model gave Fountain Gate 36% to win.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Ligi kuu Bara, before kick-off.
Fountain Gate sit 15th with 4 points; JKT Tanzania sit 11th with 7. A gap of 4 in goal difference, in favour of JKT Tanzania.
| # | Team | P |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: December 2023 to May 2026.
Average goals 2.8 (Fountain Gate 1.0, JKT Tanzania 1.8). Draws 50%, both teams scored 67%, over 2.5 goals 50%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Fountain Gate at home and JKT Tanzania away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Fountain Gate | JKT Tanzania |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 11th |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
| D |
|---|
| L |
|---|
| GF |
|---|
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 10 | Geita Gold | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | +14 | 18 |
| 2 | Simba | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 7 | 4 |
| Pts |
|---|
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 | 0.80 | 2 | 7 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 3 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 12 | 1.20 | 1 | 5 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 | 1.10 | 2 | 5 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 3 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 7 | 0.70 | 1 | 5 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 7 |
| +1 |
| 12 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 10 |
| 6 | Mbeya City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Namungo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Geita Gold | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | JKT Tanzania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Coastal Union | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Tabora United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | Fountain Gate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 4 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 2 |